Some time ago, many authoritative experts in the domestic automobile industry made a relatively optimistic judgment on the future of the Chinese automobile market based on the current situation of low car ownership per capita in China and the new market situation of “V†type reversal at the end of 2015. Some people expect that the peak annual sales of Chinese cars will reach 40 million in the next decade, and even more than expected to reach 45 million. In this regard, the author believes that this may be a serious misjudgment. According to the current situation, the peak annual sales of Chinese automobiles will be less than 30 million, far below expectations.
Why do you say this way? There are three main reasons:
First, China's demographic structure determines that fewer people will buy cars in the future.
First of all, from the perspective of age structure, due to the implementation of the family planning policy for more than 30 years, China has now begun to enter an aging society. The population over 60 years old has more than 200 million people, and it is showing rapid growth.
The activity radius and spending power of the old people determine that their desire and ability to buy a car are getting smaller and smaller, and it is even possible to directly transfer the existing car to the next generation of consumption. Although the country has introduced a second-child policy, due to a variety of factors, it is almost ridiculous to think that the fertility population will grow substantially in the short term.
Secondly, from the distribution structure of the population area, people with brains and ability are running in big cities. In the past ten years, people in the county have gone to the city to buy a house to buy a car. In the city, they all go to the provincial capital to buy a house and buy a car. More capable people will go to the north, upper, wide and deep to buy a house to buy a car. In the eyes of experts, how big is the spending power of the third, fourth and fifth-tier cities with great potential, and now it seems to be a big question mark.
Second, the restriction of purchases in big cities will make the most consuming people want to buy a car but can't buy it.
Due to the hard constraints of conditions such as congestion and environmental protection, the first-tier cities such as North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have already implemented the purchase restriction policy. Tianjin, Hangzhou and Guiyang have joined each other. In the next step, more big cities will join. One row and one column. The people in these cities have the most spending power and want to buy a car, but there is no indicator, and the spending power is artificially suppressed.
Third, the development of shared cars will make a considerable number of people decide not to buy a car.
At present, the development of the shared car market such as carpooling, windmills and special cars is in full swing. For the younger generation, it has gradually become accustomed to using mobile phones to book cars, and more and more business people have joined the ranks. The lack of indicators, parking difficulties, expensive vehicles and other factors combined with the concept of "heavy use, light ownership" will make many people abandon their plans to buy a car.
Since there are so many unfavorable factors, is the prospect of the Chinese auto market very pessimistic? I don't think so. At present, there are 170 million cars in China, and the annual consumption is more than 24.5 million. No matter the quantity or annual sales, it is second to none in the world. In the next five to ten years, car sales will continue to maintain a high level of micro-growth, and the number of possessions may eventually exceed 300 million.
Finally, to add that to make the Chinese auto industry better, there is still a market potential, that is, exports. In 2012, China's auto exports exceeded 1 million vehicles for the first time. Since then, it has been declining year by year. In 2015, it was only 730,000 vehicles, accounting for less than 3% of total annual sales.
This shows that although Chinese cars, especially self-owned brands, have made great progress compared to the past, they are still not able to pull on the world stage. This aspect shows that the competitiveness of China's auto industry is still relatively weak. On the other hand, it also shows that the space that the international market can open up is still very large. If you can find a way in this market, even if it reaches 10%, the amount is quite considerable. Only then did the Chinese auto industry really rely on the true ability to eat. Only this kind of rice is eaten practically and tastes fragrant.
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