"Eleventh Five-Year" China's total mass toll will exceed 1 million units

According to the analysis and prediction of the experts of the agricultural machinery industry, due to the inertia effect of two years of growth after the “Tenth Five-Year” period, the demand for large- and medium-sized towing in the “Eleventh Five-Year” start will increase. It is expected that the total annual demand for domestic and medium-sized companies will jump to a new level of 200,000 units, and will reach or exceed 1 million units, with an average annual increase of 20,000 units, and the total amount will increase by 69.87% over the period of the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period.

The total annual demand exceeds 180,000 sets. The unified caliber of the domestic medium and large drag industry is currently determined. Tractors with a capacity of over 25 horsepower are collectively referred to as large and medium-sized tractors. Among them, 25 to 40 horsepower for the drag, more than 50 horsepower for the drag. According to incomplete statistics of the industry, the total social ownership of Dazhong Tuo is approximately 1.1 million units, and the total social possession of medium and small tugs (18-25 hp) is approximately 3.5 million units. This part of active duty tractors account for about 40% of the 10 to 15 years. Assume that the annual replacement rate is 10%, and assume that 50% of the medium-to-small-size towed-to-large-and-middle-shifts will be transferred during the annual replacement process, plus the annual increase in the previous year, forming the annual total demand for Dazhongshang during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period. About 180,000 to 200,000 new models.

Analyze the growth and changes in the total demand for medium and large tonnages, and form the main components of the total demand for large and medium-duty tolls in the next five years. The main components are the three major components: large-, medium-, and medium-sized, medium-to-small, and medium-to-large, medium-to-large, dragging, and new exports. Among them, priority is still given to replacements driven by policies and subsidies.

It can be seen that the proportion of tractors weighing 25-40 hp in the total amount of medium-to-large towed traction has decreased in the next five years, especially the proportion below 30 hp has become the main role of decline. . For tractors with more than 50 horsepower, especially 70-80 horsepower, there will be a substantial increase in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, and the increase will reach 25% to 30%. At the same time, 90-100 horsepower tractors will also perform well.

Close to the market to strengthen the rolling forecasting experts According to predictions, the “Eleventh Five-Year” period, the development prospects of Dazhongsuo is good. If we develop at this level, it is expected that the “11th Five-Year Plan” medium and large tow industry will be upgraded to a new level, which will be conducive to a new level of agricultural mechanization. It can be foreseen that the four new features that the industry will produce in the next five years will be: First, the annual demand will reach a new stage of 200,000 units, and the total amount will reach 1 million units in five years; The advantages of medium four-wheel drive tractors will be highlighted, with an increase in the proportion, which will dominate the market. Third, the demand for large tractors will increase, driving the overall upgrading of technology with the drive system as the core. Fourth, while international brands compete with domestic brands, A new cooperation model will be created.

However, there are other factors that may have an impact on the forecast. For example, changes in economic policies, growth rates, currency exchange rates, purchasing power, etc. will all affect the change in demand for agricultural machinery as a whole. Therefore, tractor companies must strengthen their research on the market, collect market information in all aspects, and implement rolling forecasts so that they can adjust their development strategies in a timely manner.

Forecast of the change in total demand for medium and large tolls during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, medium-to-large drag, update rate, 50, 10%, 12%, 13%, 13%, 15%

Number of updates (million units) 5 6 6.5 6.5 7.5

Medium and small drag to medium and large drag update 70 8% 10% 12% 13% 15%

Number of updates (million units) 5.6 7 8.4 9.1 10.5

Large and medium dragging speed 60 10%10%10%12%13%

New volume and exports (million units) 6 6 6 7.2 7.8

"Eleventh Five-Year Plan" demand total (10,000 units) 105.1 16.6 19 20.9 22.8 25.8

The year-on-year growth rate of 22.20% 15.15% 10% 9.10% 13.16%

“Eleventh Five-Year Plan” Large and Middle Structures Modulation Change Forecast Forecast of Market Demand 25～40 50～70 75～100≥100 Tracked Demand Total Total in 2006 (Taiwan) 76800 65700 14200 5400 3900 166000

Specific gravity (%) 46.27 39.58 8.55 3.25 2.35 100.0

Total amount in 2007 (Taiwan) 85100 78500 24100 7900 4400 190000

Proportion (%) 44.79 41.32 12.68 4.16 2.32 100.0

Total amount in 2008 (Taiwan) 90200 81100 24500 8600 4600 209000

Proportion (%) 43.16 38.8 11.72 4.11 2.2 100.0

Total amount in 2009 (Taiwan) 95700 87700 29600 10200 4800 228000

Proportion (%) 41.97 38.46 12.98 4.47 2.1 100.0

Total amount in 2010 (Taiwan) 98800 98200 42500 13300 5200 258000

Specific gravity (%) 38.29 38.06 16.47 5.16 2.02 100.0