Manual car reduction
Recently, Germany ZF, the world's largest manufacturer of manual transmissions, predicts that by 2012, only 6% of cars sold in the North American market will be manually blocked. In 2002, 10% of cars sold in the United States and Canada were equipped with manual transmissions.
The same situation also occurred in the European market, which was originally a manual transmission market and was constantly occupied by automatic transmissions. According to recent statistics from the European Automobile Manufacturers and Dealers Association, in the UK, cars equipped with automatic transmissions now account for 15% of the total vehicle fleet. Five years ago, this figure was 13.5%.
Another report shows that in heavy trucks and commercial vehicles, the proportion of automatic transmissions is also increasing. From 1996 to the 8 years of this year, the proportion of automatic transmissions in heavy trucks has risen from 5% to 18%.
The editor-in-chief of an American automobile trade magazine said with emotion that many people don't know what a three-pedal car is.
"Pure" car enthusiasts have expressed regret over the ever-decreasing manual transmission. They believe that only manual transmission can truly realize "human-vehicle integration" and realize the joy of driving. “The joy of control and the fun of driving are two different feelings. Driving an automatic car can never experience the feeling of movement brought by driving a manual car,†said one fan.
Ordinary consumers do not like manual transmission, and naturally have their reasons. In the face of increasingly congested traffic, it is not easy to open and stop, drive a handcart, and it is very troublesome; moreover, one day at night, at night, we must continue to step on and off the clutch pedals.
Differences in oil prices have caused differences in the European and American auto markets
Liu Wenzhong, deputy general manager of BorgWarner Automotive Transmission Co., Ltd. of Beijing, said: “Although the proportion of hand and automatic vehicles in each country varies, the proportion of manual transmissions gradually decreases, which is certainly a trend for future development. ."
The distribution ratio of hands and automatic cars in the United States and Europe is very different, and the impact of oil prices is huge. Liu Wenzhong explained that the vast majority of passenger cars in the United States are automatic transmissions. This is because in the world, except for those oil-producing countries, the price of oil in the United States may only be so cheap. Therefore, even if the automatic transmission of fuel, but the oil price is not too expensive, but also more convenient, of course, Americans favor it.
The situation in Europe and the United States is very different. Some agencies predict that by 2013, 52% of cars in Europe will still be manually blocked. Advocating energy conservation, environmental protection, like to open a small car, which has become a European habit. What's more, when faced with the choice between automatic and manual transmissions, they can't afford high oil prices. In this way, many people stand on the side of the manual fuel with high fuel economy.
In the future, consumers may choose to manually block cars because of changes in oil prices (such as the oil crisis). However, from a global perspective, as the number of car ownership continues to increase, the proportion of manual vehicles for all vehicles will continue to decrease.
How will the transmission market develop in the future?
The transmissions on the market today are subdivided into five categories: manual transmissions (MT), automatic manual transmissions (AMT), stepless transmissions (CVT), dual clutch transmissions (DCT), and automatic transmissions (AT), each with different advantages. For example, although the transmission efficiency of the automatic transmission is only 85%, the comfort is good; the transmission efficiency of the manual transmission is high; the shift performance of the continuously variable transmission is good.
It is predicted that in the European transmission market in 2013, 52% will be equipped with manual transmissions, 10% will be equipped with automatic manual transmissions, 2% will be equipped with non-polar transmissions, and 16% will be equipped with dual-clutch transmissions. The automatic transmission will account for 20%.
However, some experts pointed out that the prediction is based on the existing types of transmission, and the new transmission products are still in the process of continuous research and development. Therefore, there may be some changes in the transmission of the automobile market in the future.
It is learned that many transmission manufacturers are currently developing some transmissions with better fuel economy and higher gear shift performance to meet the multi-level demand in the market. For example, a company is developing a transmission with transmission efficiency up to 92% and better shift performance. Some people say that in the near future, there may be 3 or 4 new “species†in the transmission market.
For the Chinese transmission market, experts pointed out that it will certainly be “in line with the internationalâ€â€”the market share of manual transmissions will decline. According to statistics, at present, the ratio of domestic riders and automatic transmissions is 6:4. However, as more and more consumers pursue "convenience and trouble-saving," the market share of non-manual intervention will undoubtedly gradually increase. But in the end it was AMT, CVT, DCT, AT, or other transmissions. Several experts said it was not predictable.
Liu Wenzhong believes: “At present, China’s situation is that many technologies still rely on foreign countries. There has been a leap in the development of transmissions. Nowadays, automatic transmissions are mainly based on ATs, such as those of Geely, Shanghai Volkswagen, and Shanghai General Motors. All of them are based on AT. However, the specific types of transmissions that will become popular in the future will depend on market changes and the development of new products."
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