In view of the current chaos in China's coal chemical industry, some experts in the coal chemical industry believe that the country should follow a clear energy security strategy, focus on solving future oil substitution problems, introduce a coal mine chemical industry development strategy plan as soon as possible, and scientifically adjust coal chemical industry. Industrial layout to gradually build an energy alternative system that suits China’s national conditions.
Establishing Petroleum Substitution System from Strategic Security Level
Li Yongwang, general manager of China Synthetic Oil Co., Ltd., said in an interview that human beings can't get rid of chemical raw materials in the next 100 years, but they must shift to carbon-based conversion instead of relying on oil to convert as much as they do now. Therefore, China must regard limited coal resources as the raw material for the future development of the chemical industry. For China, this process is 10 years ahead of other countries. Starting from the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, we must consider this transitional process, establish a scientific energy substitution system, and gradually use coal for the conversion of oil products and chemical products. At present, the characteristics of China's multi-coal and low-oil resources have prompted China's coal chemical technology level to take the lead in the world. In the future, through joint development in the field of technology, Chinese enterprises can access more coal resources in countries such as Australia and Canada.
Li Yongwang does not agree that the current domestic third- and fourth-tier cities are also changing their natural gas practices. He said that when coal must be used to make natural gas, it will be a disastrous consequence of China's current energy policy. At present, China's natural gas resources can guarantee the supply of several major cities, but it is unrealistic to engage in "the use of gas by all citizens." One is that natural gas and gas cannot use a unified pipeline, and the second is to use coal as natural gas to consume 30% more energy. If one-third of the country's gas is converted to natural gas, this is equivalent to carrying a heavy burden again, which may trigger a future "gas shortage."
Lack of strategic planning leads to industrial chaos
Some industry experts have reported that China lacks a clear strategic plan for the development of coal chemical industry, which is the root cause of the current chaos in the coal chemical industry.
Li Yongwang said that the most important issue for the coal chemical industry is the issue of the country's macro strategic thinking. The state must make great efforts in planning and policy formulation, limit the total amount, and keep the threshold at the door. The rest is done by markets and enterprises. The current problem is that it is difficult for the central government to balance the interests of all provinces. Each resource-rich province is engaged in its own coal chemical planning. Many projects are local and corporate “closed eyes†and lack overall strategy. layout. At present, the provinces that can do large-scale coal chemical industry in China are Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, with the focus on Xinjiang, while coal in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia should be mainly used to protect the supply of coal in the mainland.
Wang Tianfeng, party secretary of Lunan Chemical Fertilizer Plant, bluntly stated that the biggest problem in the coal chemical industry is that local interests and national interests are not coordinated. Taking acetic anhydride as an example, due to the poor guidance of the country's industrial layout, all parts of the country are bound to work at the same time. In the end, they can only kill each other and cause a lot of waste of resources.
Wang Tianfeng said that in order to change the current chaos in coal chemical industry, it is not suitable for coal chemical industry. The government does not rigidly require the conversion of coal resources. As the local government considers increasing local GDP and considers performance appraisal, this country must guide and regulate policies. The state must introduce the policy of supporting the development of coal chemical industry to the high end as soon as possible, taking the scientific and technological research and development and key technologies as breakthroughs, and completely open the coal chemical market. For example, in view of the current problem of connection between production, education, and research, it is necessary to encourage the exploration of risk investment mechanisms.
The 12th Five-Year Plan will enter the demonstration stage of large-scale industrialization
Although domestic primary products such as coal-to-methanol are in excess capacity, experts in the industry believe that with the breaking of technological bottlenecks in downstream products, this surplus can be said to be phased. With the words of He Yingqing, a research fellow at the Yankuang Group Strategic Research Institute, in the development of the coal chemical industry, the country must first promote technological progress and then promote industrial development. At present, the technology for producing olefins from coal is relatively mature, and one ton of olefin can be produced for every three tons of methanol.
Once open downstream markets, methanol is not enough
Niu Kehong, dean of the Strategic Research Institute of Yankuang Group, believes that the future development direction of China's coal chemical industry is aimed at the large market, producing large products, and it is necessary to take the road of fine chemicals with high added value and high technological content that can replace petroleum products. As can be seen from Baotou and Shenhua demonstration projects, as long as breakthroughs in key technologies such as methanol and other downstream products, will release a large market, we have reason to believe that the current overcapacity of methanol and other primary products is phased. Once the olefin product line is completely opened, what the petroleum products can do, coal can do it.
Du Minghua, an expert in the advanced energy technology field of the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, believes that at present there is an overall consensus in the industry on the development of coal chemical industry. That is, under the demand of energy and materials for economic and social development, China’s coal chemical technology has achieved 10 years of efforts to achieve From the unconventional development of basic research to industrial demonstration, if the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†is the project demonstration stage, then the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will enter the large-scale demonstration stage of industrialization and commercialization, but it is still not fully into the industrialization stage. .
The key to raising the industry's threshold is to implement
Now, not only has the methanol plant been put into operation in various places, but with the breakthrough of high-end technology in the coal chemical industry, the phenomenon of high-end excess capacity in coal chemical industry has begun to take shape. Zhang Minglin, deputy general manager of Yankuang Group Co., Ltd., said that the ultimate goal of the development of coal chemical industry is to solve the problem of China's oil substitution. Energy security is a strategic issue and it is necessary for the country to issue relevant coal chemical industry standards as soon as possible to end the current industry development disorder.
As the first coal-to-olefins demonstration project in China, the benefits of the Shenhua Coal-to-oil Chemical Co., Ltd. Baotou Coal Chemicals Branch began to show up, but Wu Xingbin, general manager of the branch, expressed concern about the development prospects of the industry. He said that the core of methanol to olefins is domestic technology, from the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and a company in Shaanxi. It is understood that this technology has been signed with the company 12 sets. Strictly speaking, these more than 10 sets of devices have to be approved by the state, but Datang, Ningxie and other projects have started construction, and it does not rule out private enterprises in private. If these projects are launched in a concentrated manner, the production capacity will increase by 6 million tons, which will be an impact on the entire industry, and high-end production capacity will also be surplus.
The Development and Reform Commission issued a notice in March this year to set a threshold for related coal chemical projects to effectively strengthen the regulation and guidance of the coal chemical industry. For example, before the new approval list is issued, it is forbidden to build a coal-to-olefins project with an annual output of 500,000 tons or less of coal, a coal-to-methanol project with an annual output of 1 million tons or less, and an annual output of 1 million tons or less of coal-made dimethyl ether. Projects with an annual output of 1 million tons of coal-based oil projects, an annual output of 2 billion cubic meters of coal-based natural gas projects, and an annual output of 200,000 tons of coal-based ethylene glycol projects. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will focus on organizing and implementing the upgrading of modern coal chemical industry demonstration projects. In principle, a company shall undertake a demonstration project.
Du Minghua believes that the threshold set for this notification is very appropriate and is conducive to the healthy and orderly development of the entire coal chemical industry, but the key is still being implemented.
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