Analysts believe that the opening of the super battery plant will increase the market's attention to the supply and demand situation in the lithium market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank once predicted that demand for lithium carbonate as a raw material for batteries will continue to boom with the outbreak of sales of electric vehicles.
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Lithium demand or rise
The Tesla Super Battery Plant is located in the eastern part of Reno, Nevada, and covers 5.8 million square feet. It is known as the world's largest lithium-ion battery factory. Matsushita, a Tesla battery supplier, expects the plant to begin large-scale production in November this year. It is expected that it will achieve full capacity operation by 2020, and produce 500,000 lithium batteries per year, which is more than the sum of the batteries produced by all the other factories in the world.
The completion of the super battery plant is an important part of helping Tesla to break the capacity bottleneck. Previously, Tesla CEO Musk had announced that the company's production capacity will be increased from the current 80,000-90,000 units to 500,000 within two years, an increase of nearly five times, and will further increase to 1 million units by 2020, compared to previous plans. Two years in advance.
In addition, Musk announced the development blueprint of the company in the next ten years last week. According to the plan, Tesla's future business will be involved in integrated solar products, electric public transport, driverless cars, and derivative rental and sharing markets. Become a vertically integrated clean energy company.
Analysts believe that Tesla’s move towards the clean energy giant will form an important boost to lithium demand. In order to meet the production of Tesla electric vehicles and solar energy storage products, lithium battery production must be significantly increased, and lithium demand will become tight.
According to a research report released by Southwest Securities, the Tesla Super Battery Factory plans to produce an annual capacity of 35GWH. In accordance with the amount of 0.7-1kg of lithium carbonate required for 1KWH, Tesla's battery capacity by 2020 will correspond to approximately 2.5-3.5 million tons of lithium carbonate demand.
Lithium battery plate is concerned
Analysts believe that with the outbreak of sales of electric vehicles, lithium battery demand will remain strong, highlighting industry development opportunities. Goldman Sachs reported in a report released at the end of last year that lithium may become a "new-era gasoline." It is estimated that the demand for lithium carbonate is currently 160,000 tons per year, and the increase in electric vehicle penetration rate by 1 percentage point will bring 70,000 yuan per year. Tons of new lithium carbonate demand. By 2025, only the growth of the electric vehicle market is expected to drive the entire lithium market to reach 470,000 tons.
Deutsche Bank analysts expect global electric vehicle sales to rise five times in the next 10 years, putting pressure on the battery supply chain and lithium market. Global lithium demand is expected to increase from 181,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2015 to 535,000 tons in 2025.
With the boost of the opening of the super battery factory, investors have paid more attention to the lithium battery sector. In the US market on Friday, the share price of Bacanora Minerals, which supplies lithium for Tesla's super battery plant, rose by 4.4%. Among other lithium suppliers, Oroplata Resources rose 4.6%, SQM rose 0.8%, Nemaska ​​Lithium rose 13.24%, Albemarle rose 0.9%, FMC rose 0.3%.
The Southwest Securities Report pointed out that the higher than expected orders for Model 3 will prompt Tesla to accelerate the original production plan, and the selection of battery raw material suppliers will be advanced. At present, the global lithium industry is highly concentrated. The supply of lithium salt is controlled by the foreign giants Yabao, SQM and FMC, and China's lithium salt production enterprises. The market share of foreign giants is approximately 58%, and China’s lithium salt producers have a total market share. It is 40%. Lithium carbonate Big Three's lithium carbonate products are the common choice of the world's major battery manufacturers such as Panasonic, LG, etc., and are also important industry standards, so it is likely to become the lithium salt supplier of Tesla Super Factory. However, Tesla may also choose several lithium salt suppliers as its suppliers, and Chinese suppliers also have the ability to compete.
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