The car market is not good, how is the dealer inventory performance? A few days ago, the China Automobile Dealers Association released data. In May, the comprehensive inventory factor of auto dealers was 1.58, up 14% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter. The dealer inventory level has dropped, but it is still above the warning line.
The data shows that the inventory coefficient of joint venture brands, imported brands and independent brands declined in the previous month compared to last month. Among them, the joint venture brand inventory coefficient was 1.37, down 16% from the previous month; the imported brand inventory coefficient was 1.55, down 2% from the previous month; the independent brand inventory coefficient was 1.90, down 23% from the previous month. In May, the inventory levels of imported brands and independent brands were above the warning line.
This was mainly due to the large-scale auto show held during the May 1st period in May, which boosted market demand. However, when the northern region entered the busy season, the number of rural consumers began to decrease; some customers had expectations for the implementation of the New Deal on July 1, and they took a wait-and-see attitude toward buying cars; and some manufacturers demand stricter requirements for dealers. As a result, the dealer inventory level is still above the warning line.
Since the beginning of this year, the inventory factor of auto dealers has remained at a high level, from 1.60, 2.25, 1.66, 1.92 and 1.58 in January-May. According to industry common practice, the car inventory coefficient is between 0.8 and 1.2 is a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient is greater than 1.5, reflecting the inventory level of alertness, need to pay attention; the inventory coefficient is greater than 2.5, reflecting the inventory is too high, the pressure on business pressure and risk .
The data shows that in May, there were 5 brands with stock depths of more than two months, namely Changan Car, Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Beijing Hyundai, SAIC Volkswagen, and SAIC Roewe.
So what is the market in the coming months? According to the joint forecast of the National Federation of Trade Unions and Wilson, the overall wholesale volume of passenger cars in July is expected to be 1.64 million, an increase of 4.7% compared with July. Among them, the car market was 800,000 units, down 2.8% year-on-year; the MPV market was 137,000 units, down 8.1% year-on-year; the SUV market was 700,000 units, up 20.1% year-on-year.
In addition, the overall passenger vehicle market in June is expected to be 1.75 million units, down 70,000 units from last month's forecast, mainly due to the reduction of market retail sales expectations and the negative impact of increased inventory pressure.
Under the combined effect of various factors, the overall passenger vehicle market is expected to decrease by 6.0% in July. Among them, sales of Korean sales, inventory pressure and seasonal decline are the main factors affecting the automobile market in July.
China Automobile Circulation Association reminded that in June, it has entered the traditional off-season. Some manufacturers are sprinting for half-year mission targets, and will fulfill the mission requirements for dealers. It is expected that dealer inventory pressure will increase. Dealers still have to rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions and reasonably control inventory levels to prevent excessive inventory pressure and lead to operational risks.
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