In recent months, frequent and hazy weather, the "Light Vehicle Pollutant Emission Limits and Measurement Methods (China's Fifth Stage)" (commonly known as the "National Five" standard) has been put on the agenda again. Recently, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the second draft of the “National Five†standard. Yesterday, a number of industry insiders told reporters that the introduction of the "National Five" standard will prompt auto makers to upgrade the product's emissions system and engine, but the price of the car may rise by a thousand dollars.
Industry expects to implement in the next two years
In the second draft, new limits were imposed on the emission limits of new auto pollutants for light vehicles (cars with a maximum weight of less than 3.5 tons). The Daily News reporter combed and found that the new rules only apply to the stereotyped, production, and sales of new cars, not to the cars that are already in use.
Relative to the "National IV" standard, the "National Five" emission standard not only increases the number of particulate matter items, but also imposes stricter limits on pollutant discharge. According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection, if the “National Five†standard is implemented, according to its authority testing, each light vehicle will reduce 25% to 28% of the nitrogen oxides on the existing basis and reduce particulate matter by 82%.
The reporter found that compared to international emissions standards, the "National Five" standard is equivalent to the fifth phase of the European emission regulations. If the "National Five" standard is implemented, it will mean that China's most stringent automobile emission standards will be issued. There are two ways to reduce vehicle emissions: First, improve the fuel efficiency of the vehicle through product technology upgrades and reduce emissions; second, the quality of refined oil is higher.
When will the "National Five" standard be formally implemented? The industry views vary. Zhuo Chuang, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, believes that from "State One" to "State Two" to "State Three," it took four years respectively, while "National Three" to "National Four" are only three years old. The rate of increase of emission standards has accelerated every year. It has been a year and a half since the implementation of the “National IV†standard in 2011. Therefore, the "National Five" standard is likely to be implemented in the last two years.
Yang Dayong, the head of the Chang'an Auto Commercial Vehicles Division, believes that the “National Five†standard should be implemented and the quality of refined oil products must be upgraded first. "The current launch of the "National Five" standard still has obstacles." Yang Dayong said.
Finished oil prices may rise
With the increase of environmental protection standards, the cost of refining will inevitably increase, and the domestic refined oil price may rise accordingly. Beijing began implementing the "Beijing Five" standard that is close to the "National Five" standard from last May. Gasoline No. 93, No. 97, and No. 90 have been removed. Instead, No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline have been replaced. Although Beijing's oil prices have not yet risen due to rising standards, the oil price of the "National IV" standard has been used, but its gasoline price is higher than most of the country. If the "National Five" standard is implemented, it means that oil prices will rise in an all-round way.
The cost of automobile production may increase by thousands
Whether or not the automobile meets the national emission standards at the time of its manufacture is a key indicator of its delivery and licensing. In order to meet the "National Five" standard, car companies will certainly increase costs to improve their engines and emissions systems.
"The "National Five" standard has not yet been formally implemented, so it is still impossible to determine how much it will increase." Yang Dayong said that from the previous "National 3" standard to the "National IV" standard, the power and emissions of the reformed car The system increases the cost of 1,000 yuan per vehicle. Pang Hai, general manager of Dongfeng Xiaokang Sales Co., also stated that if the "National Five" standard is implemented, the cost of mini-vehicles will increase by 700 to 800 yuan.
Yang Dayong believes that although the cost may increase by 1,000 yuan, considering the shrinking market and fierce competition in the industry, the rising costs cannot be fully amortized to consumers, and the estimated price will increase by about 800 to 900 yuan. After the production scale of the automobile, the production cost will be amortized through the scale effect. In the long run, there will be no significant impact on prices.
Yang Dayong also believes that the "National Five" standard actually imposes higher requirements on the cost control capabilities of car companies. Which company can minimize the cost of the new standard will most likely win in the fierce market competition. Pang Hai said that the annual increase in domestic car consumption is shrinking, car companies can improve competitiveness through economies of scale and cost management, but from the perspective of the entire market, competition will become increasingly fierce.
According to Jia Xinguang, a famous domestic car commentator, “Since the implementation of the “National IV†standard for a year and a half, the domestic auto market is still in a stable pattern and has not caused any significant price increase. As long as the “National Five†standard is in place, Making every company on the same starting line will not cause too much industry shock."
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