The macroeconomic data released the day before yesterday showed that the domestic CPI rose by as high as 8% in the first quarter of 2008. Under the background of high inflation expectations, the country may introduce more policies to maintain the stability of refined oil prices.
Some bubbles in oil prices
Since 2008, the international oil price has grown rapidly and has risen about 18% this year. On the 16th, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light crude oil for delivery in May closed at $114.93 a barrel, while the London International Petroleum Exchange's May delivery of Brent crude oil futures for the month of May closed at $112.60.
In response, Jing Jingmei of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center told reporters yesterday that they predicted at the end of last year that the average price of international oil prices will run at a high of around US$75 per barrel this year; but from the current situation, actual prices may exceed this number. From a fundamental perspective, the latest report of OPEC still estimates the global crude oil demand is 87 million barrels per day. In addition, China’s recently released customs data shows that the import volume of crude oil and gasoline has increased significantly and the consumer outlook is optimistic. In contrast, oil production does not increase. Coupled with the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, some investors holding dollars turned to buy physical goods to reduce the losses caused by the depreciation of the dollar. However, Yan Jingmei also reminded that there are many international oil price bubbles.
Regulation is conducive to stability
In fact, in order to ease the pressure of oil prices on domestic inflation, the government is speeding up the preparation of policies to prepare for the oil shortage. Prior to this, the Ministry of Finance announced that the import of 3.5 million tons of gasoline and diesel imported by PetroChina and Sinopec Group in the second quarter of this year will be effected before the import value-added tax is advanced.
According to Jing Meimei’s analysis, from the CPI data released the day before yesterday, the residential price rose by 6.6% in the first quarter, driving the overall price level up by 1 percentage point; this increase was greatly improved from the previous 3% to 4% increase in previous months. “Residential prices include building and decoration materials prices, rental prices and water, electricity and fuel prices. This shows that the pressure of refined oil prices on the CPI is increasing.†Yan Jingmei said. Therefore, in the short term, the country will not raise the retail price of refined oil. It is necessary to use various external policies to ease the oil refining dilemma of the two groups. After the country’s tax-free refined oil imports and possible crude oil imports, the policy of price increases for domestic refined oil products may be suspended, and the price adjustment of the entire society is expected to cool down, which will help suppress the wholesale and retail inversions.
Increase innovation
So how do countries and companies with high oil prices react?
Sun Lijian, deputy dean of School of Economics at Fudan University, believes that under the continuous rise in the prices of international primary products, China should accelerate the establishment of strategic petroleum reserves to safeguard its own oil security supply, such as the formulation of relevant laws and regulations on petroleum strategic reserves, and reserve operation management agencies. The establishment of the oil plant, the source of oil reserves, the source of reserve funds, the location of new reserve bases, and the scale of reserves in line with China's needs require further study.
International chemical giants such as BASF and LANXESS also stated that in the long run, companies cannot pass on costs simply by raising prices. On the one hand, high oil prices will stimulate the chemical industry to accelerate the research and development of alternative energy and new energy, and on the other hand it will accelerate the integration of the industry.
Some bubbles in oil prices
Since 2008, the international oil price has grown rapidly and has risen about 18% this year. On the 16th, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light crude oil for delivery in May closed at $114.93 a barrel, while the London International Petroleum Exchange's May delivery of Brent crude oil futures for the month of May closed at $112.60.
In response, Jing Jingmei of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center told reporters yesterday that they predicted at the end of last year that the average price of international oil prices will run at a high of around US$75 per barrel this year; but from the current situation, actual prices may exceed this number. From a fundamental perspective, the latest report of OPEC still estimates the global crude oil demand is 87 million barrels per day. In addition, China’s recently released customs data shows that the import volume of crude oil and gasoline has increased significantly and the consumer outlook is optimistic. In contrast, oil production does not increase. Coupled with the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, some investors holding dollars turned to buy physical goods to reduce the losses caused by the depreciation of the dollar. However, Yan Jingmei also reminded that there are many international oil price bubbles.
Regulation is conducive to stability
In fact, in order to ease the pressure of oil prices on domestic inflation, the government is speeding up the preparation of policies to prepare for the oil shortage. Prior to this, the Ministry of Finance announced that the import of 3.5 million tons of gasoline and diesel imported by PetroChina and Sinopec Group in the second quarter of this year will be effected before the import value-added tax is advanced.
According to Jing Meimei’s analysis, from the CPI data released the day before yesterday, the residential price rose by 6.6% in the first quarter, driving the overall price level up by 1 percentage point; this increase was greatly improved from the previous 3% to 4% increase in previous months. “Residential prices include building and decoration materials prices, rental prices and water, electricity and fuel prices. This shows that the pressure of refined oil prices on the CPI is increasing.†Yan Jingmei said. Therefore, in the short term, the country will not raise the retail price of refined oil. It is necessary to use various external policies to ease the oil refining dilemma of the two groups. After the country’s tax-free refined oil imports and possible crude oil imports, the policy of price increases for domestic refined oil products may be suspended, and the price adjustment of the entire society is expected to cool down, which will help suppress the wholesale and retail inversions.
Increase innovation
So how do countries and companies with high oil prices react?
Sun Lijian, deputy dean of School of Economics at Fudan University, believes that under the continuous rise in the prices of international primary products, China should accelerate the establishment of strategic petroleum reserves to safeguard its own oil security supply, such as the formulation of relevant laws and regulations on petroleum strategic reserves, and reserve operation management agencies. The establishment of the oil plant, the source of oil reserves, the source of reserve funds, the location of new reserve bases, and the scale of reserves in line with China's needs require further study.
International chemical giants such as BASF and LANXESS also stated that in the long run, companies cannot pass on costs simply by raising prices. On the one hand, high oil prices will stimulate the chemical industry to accelerate the research and development of alternative energy and new energy, and on the other hand it will accelerate the integration of the industry.
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