Recently, the drastic changes in the caustic soda market have disappeared from the past, and prices have begun to decline. The rate of decline has ranged from 50 to 100 yuan (t price, the same below). 30% diaphragm alkali, the low-end ex-factory price in Shandong has dropped to 400 yuan, and the low-end transaction price in some areas in Zhejiang has also dropped to 560 yuan. The reason why the caustic soda market continued to be strong and then changed rapidly is the result of the combined effects of the state’s strict control of high energy-consuming industries to curb the downstream demand, the flood and flood disasters blocking the transportation of north alkali, the export tax rebate adjustment intensifying the domestic sales pressure and the continuous release of new production capacity. .
First, the downstream demand has shrunk. The strong performance of the caustic soda market in the past year and the first half of this year was mainly due to the good performance of downstream demand, and a significant increase in demand for alumina, chemical fiber, pharmaceuticals, and daily chemicals. In particular, the alumina industry's drive for demand for caustic soda cannot be ignored and is the main growth point. However, the alumina industry is a high-energy-consuming industry. As the country increases its efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction this year, the alumina industry as one of the country's macroeconomic control priorities, the operating rate has shrunk, and the demand for caustic soda has decreased. This has been particularly evident in individual regions. As one of the key industries for demanding caustic soda in the previous period, the reduction in demand for caustic soda in the alumina industry directly affects the domestic caustic soda market. Other downstream industries have also been affected by macro-control in varying degrees. The growth in demand for caustic soda has also been reduced and consumption growth has slowed.
The second is the continuous increase in supply capacity. In recent years, domestic caustic soda production capacity has continued to increase, new companies have been put into production, and production capacity has been continuously released. In the second half of this year, Shandong Binzhou Ocean, Inner Mongolia Yili, Jilantai and other caustic soda devices will all be put into production one after another. The supply pressure will continue to increase, and the supply and demand in the domestic market will be affected, especially for local areas.
Third, floods affect transportation. In the recent flooding in the south, floods in some areas are severe and some traffic is interrupted. The interruption of transportation has a greater impact on caustic soda transport especially for the north and south alkalis. Northern caustic sodas increase local and peripheral sales efforts, resulting in a prominent contradiction between supply and demand for caustic soda in local areas in the short term, increasing price pressures, and overall price exploration is also expected. Among them.
The fourth is to cancel the caustic soda export tax rebate. Due to the increase in production capacity of domestic production, the export market has always been the dominant market to ease the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. However, as the export tax rebates were cancelled, the caustic soda export market began to shrink. In May, domestic exports of caustic soda amounted to 140,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Cumulative exports of about 600,000 tons of caustic soda. On June 19th, the Ministry of Finance announced the news to adjust some of the tax rebates for export commodities. The elimination of export tax rebates for caustic soda has negatively affected the caustic soda industry. In the early stage of domestic caustic soda market was relatively good and the price was relatively high, the impact of export tax rebates on the market was not obvious at the moment. However, with the decline in domestic prices of caustic soda, export prices will also be adjusted downwards. After the tax rebate is abolished, contract negotiations will be more difficult and exports will also be affected. Exports and domestic sales will increase the pressure on the domestic market. As for the specific impact, it will only be determined by the second half of the year. However, due to the pressure of domestic supply and demand, the export market will still be a direction for everyone to work hard.
The domestic caustic soda market has begun to decline at a high level, entering the consolidation period. However, due to the obvious regional characteristics of caustic soda, the market differentiation is unavoidable. The extent and timing of the local market quotation are not the same, but the hot market is hard to continue. At present, although the price of caustic soda has dropped, it is still at a relatively high level. With the conversion of various factors, it is necessary to maintain a cautious attitude towards caustic soda.
First, the downstream demand has shrunk. The strong performance of the caustic soda market in the past year and the first half of this year was mainly due to the good performance of downstream demand, and a significant increase in demand for alumina, chemical fiber, pharmaceuticals, and daily chemicals. In particular, the alumina industry's drive for demand for caustic soda cannot be ignored and is the main growth point. However, the alumina industry is a high-energy-consuming industry. As the country increases its efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction this year, the alumina industry as one of the country's macroeconomic control priorities, the operating rate has shrunk, and the demand for caustic soda has decreased. This has been particularly evident in individual regions. As one of the key industries for demanding caustic soda in the previous period, the reduction in demand for caustic soda in the alumina industry directly affects the domestic caustic soda market. Other downstream industries have also been affected by macro-control in varying degrees. The growth in demand for caustic soda has also been reduced and consumption growth has slowed.
The second is the continuous increase in supply capacity. In recent years, domestic caustic soda production capacity has continued to increase, new companies have been put into production, and production capacity has been continuously released. In the second half of this year, Shandong Binzhou Ocean, Inner Mongolia Yili, Jilantai and other caustic soda devices will all be put into production one after another. The supply pressure will continue to increase, and the supply and demand in the domestic market will be affected, especially for local areas.
Third, floods affect transportation. In the recent flooding in the south, floods in some areas are severe and some traffic is interrupted. The interruption of transportation has a greater impact on caustic soda transport especially for the north and south alkalis. Northern caustic sodas increase local and peripheral sales efforts, resulting in a prominent contradiction between supply and demand for caustic soda in local areas in the short term, increasing price pressures, and overall price exploration is also expected. Among them.
The fourth is to cancel the caustic soda export tax rebate. Due to the increase in production capacity of domestic production, the export market has always been the dominant market to ease the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. However, as the export tax rebates were cancelled, the caustic soda export market began to shrink. In May, domestic exports of caustic soda amounted to 140,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Cumulative exports of about 600,000 tons of caustic soda. On June 19th, the Ministry of Finance announced the news to adjust some of the tax rebates for export commodities. The elimination of export tax rebates for caustic soda has negatively affected the caustic soda industry. In the early stage of domestic caustic soda market was relatively good and the price was relatively high, the impact of export tax rebates on the market was not obvious at the moment. However, with the decline in domestic prices of caustic soda, export prices will also be adjusted downwards. After the tax rebate is abolished, contract negotiations will be more difficult and exports will also be affected. Exports and domestic sales will increase the pressure on the domestic market. As for the specific impact, it will only be determined by the second half of the year. However, due to the pressure of domestic supply and demand, the export market will still be a direction for everyone to work hard.
The domestic caustic soda market has begun to decline at a high level, entering the consolidation period. However, due to the obvious regional characteristics of caustic soda, the market differentiation is unavoidable. The extent and timing of the local market quotation are not the same, but the hot market is hard to continue. At present, although the price of caustic soda has dropped, it is still at a relatively high level. With the conversion of various factors, it is necessary to maintain a cautious attitude towards caustic soda.
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