Asian and European routes are warming

A recent freight forecast report issued by International Containerization magazine pointed out that after the Asian and European routes have experienced the twists and turns in the previous period, the outlook for the stronger market is expected to benefit, but other routes may continue to slump.

According to the forecast of the January freight report, the supply and demand of main airlines in Asia and Europe will improve or boost freight rates. However, other European routes are still subject to low utilization rates of ships and the freight rates are not optimistic.

When analyzing the trend of freight rates from Asian to Northern European trunk routes, the magazine pointed out that in the fourth quarter of last year, the volume of material in the route experienced a decline of about 4%, and the average utilization rate of ships may have dropped to 81%.

However, as the end of the year is approaching, the operating income reports of Asia-Europe routes will soon be intensively disclosed and the shipping companies will face tremendous pressure. In order to stop the downward trend in the current round of freight rates that began in the second half of last year, the market once again staged a wave of freight rates last month. A good show.

This year, Asia-Europe trade volume is expected to increase by 4%-6%, and liner companies have taken the initiative to control capacity investment. CI forecasts that the freight rate of this route will increase moderately.

As for the Asia-Europe-Mediterranean route, CI indicated that it was supported by a 7% reduction in the number of flights on this route. Its freight rate has rebounded slightly in the first half of this year or in line with the Asia-North Europe route.

However, the outlook for the liner companies operating on the East Coast to South Europe of South America is less optimistic. According to CI forecast, the average utilization rate of the route was not affected by the improvement of the average utilization rate of the ship. In the first three quarters of this year, the freight rates will continue to slump.

CI analysis: Although the volume of shipments of US and European routes is better than expected, the excess capacity of the market and the average utilization rate of ships all inhibit the upward channel of freight rates. What's worse is that the utilization rate of this space is expected to be less than 80%. This trend will continue throughout 2013.

Although the volume of cargo in the first quarter of 2013 is expected to increase slightly by 1%, and then the rate of increase will quickly rise, and it is expected to reach 5% by the third quarter, liner companies investing in large capacity to reduce operating costs will lead to increase in available space, which is bound to be detrimental to the overall market. The recovery of freight rates.