In the first half of 2007, the tin market was extremely active under the supply shortage. Prices continue to extend the fourth quarter of 2006, rising sharply from 10,000 US dollars to 15,000 US dollars, up to a 29-year high of 15,200 US dollars. The price of tin has risen since the second half of 2006. Supply is the most important driving factor, and the Indonesian government is the most important for the rectification of mines and smelters.
In the second half of the year, with the resumption of production of some smelters in Indonesia and the sharp increase in Chinese refined tin production, supply will improve. However, there are still uncertainties in the policy. Will the Indonesian smelters reach a smooth production level? Will China impose export tariffs? How will the impact of the changes in China's welfare factory tax rebate policies on the market? These issues will directly affect the international market? supply.
Price Review In the first half of 2007, under the condition of supply shortage, the tin price basically continued the strong growth in the second half of 2006. In January-February, the price rose almost linearly. In March and April, the rally began to weaken. In the mid-to-late May to the month of June, the tin price did not hit a high point again, and it was basically adjusted around 14,000 US dollars.
In the first half of 2007, the highest price of tin for LME for three months was 15,200 U.S. dollars per ton (April 18th), the lowest price was 9,850 U.S. dollars per tonne (January 9th), and the average price was 13,295.48 U.S. dollars per ton, which was the same period in 2006. This is an increase of 64.38%. The highest spot price of 14,700 US dollars / ton (April 17), the lowest price of 10,125 US dollars / ton (January 9th), the average price of 13407.7 US dollars / ton, compared with the same period in 2006 rose by 66.29%.
Domestic prices also rose steadily in the first half of the year, from less than 90,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 11,500 yuan in April, an increase of about 30%. But overall, domestic prices are not as strong as international prices. In the first half of 2007, the average price of the domestic capital market was 10,2583.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 27.48% compared with the same period in 2006.
Price stimulates a substantial increase in China's production In the first half of 2007, under the stimulation of high tin prices, China's tin production increased significantly, of which the increase in production of reclaimed tin was the most important. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Association, China's tin production increased 13.48% year-on-year to 60,716 tons from January to May 2007, an increase that was relatively large. Among them, the increase in output of Jiangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan is relatively large, both in double digits. Jiangxi's tin production increased by 28.55% year-on-year to 2,157 tons, while Hunan's production increased by 24.24% year-on-year to 8,763 tons, while Yunnan's production increased by 11.64% to 35,502 tons. Jiangxi's refined tin production has been increasing faster this year, especially in the Luzhou region, where more new electric furnaces are on the line. Jiangxi's current major tin ingot brands are Chixi, Nanshan, Huashan, Jinjiang and Baita, all of which are actively producing refined tin.
According to the statistics of the China Nonferrous Metals Association, China's tin concentrate output was 24,537 tons in January-May 2007, a decrease of 1.59% year-on-year. However, there is a big gap between the official tin concentrate data and refined tin production. According to the previous calculation method, the author considers that 25% of refined tin production is used as recycled raw materials, and the production of tin concentrate from January to May of 2007 is reversed. It is 47,404 tons.
China's consumption continues to increase, but its growth rate slows slightly. In the first half of 2007, China’s economy continued to maintain a steady and steady growth. The consumption of tin also maintained an increase under a good environment, but the growth rate slowed down. The electronics manufacturing industry as a whole continues to increase rapidly. However, as the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar continues to rise, the low price advantage of China's electronics manufacturing industry will gradually weaken, resulting in a decline in exports. Affected by this, the consumption growth rate of solder is also falling compared with the same period in 2006.
With the transfer of tin plate production capacity in Europe and South Korea to China, the tin consumption of tinplate in China is gradually increasing. In the first half of 2007, the output of tinplate production in China was relatively fast. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of tinplate in China from January to May 2007 was 578,300 tons, an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period of 2006, and tin consumption of tinplates was estimated to be about 2,300 tons.
Due to the competition and cost pressures at home and abroad, tin chemical industry has shrunk. Chemical producers in the Shandong area have reduced production or stopped production, and consumption has decreased. However, the production of Yunxi and Huaxi Chemicals is still relatively normal, partially offsetting the decrease in other regions.
From January to May, the export volume of China's tin ingots increased greatly. According to the latest customs statistics, China's tin ingot exports reached 13,536.708 tons from January to May, an increase of 74.82% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, international tin prices continued to be higher than domestic prices, and exports had greater profits, leading to a significant increase in China’s exports. Many companies basically used up their export quotas for the first half of the year in April. However, it is expected that exports in the second half of the year may be reduced. On the one hand, they will be limited by export quotas. On the other hand, domestic prices may become stronger in the second half of the year.
This year China's imports of tin ingots have decreased substantially. To a large extent, it was influenced by Indonesia's reorganization of crude tin smelters and new export regulations restricting crude tin exports. From January to May, China's imports of tin ingots were only 2,206.387 tons, a decrease of 75.23% year-on-year. The number of tin ingots imported from Indonesia was 973.828 tons, a decrease of 81.78% year-on-year. From January to May of this year, the net export volume of China's tin ingots was 12,788.39 tons, which was far higher than the levels in the same period in 2005 and 2006.
Outlook of the market outlook As Indonesia successively issued export licenses and production licenses for 12 enterprises, the Indonesian government's adjustment of the tin production industry has basically ended, and relevant policies have also been issued. In the second half of the year, we estimate that production in Indonesia will recover, but the increase in production will be limited. In addition, the project of Yunnan Tin's nearly 10,000 tons of mines and smelters in Indonesia is expected to start in August and it is estimated that there will be several hundred tons of production per month.
China's tin production in the second half of the year will continue to increase. But after the implementation of the new welfare factory tax rebate policy in July, the market is facing a big adjustment. Many domestic tin producers relying on welfare companies to digest concentrates without tickets changed the procurement channels. The tin concentrates on the market were unusually tight, and none of the tin concentrates without tickets attracted attention. Mining companies are currently unwilling to reduce the sales price of concentrates to supplement the taxes paid by smelters for the purchase of no-bill concentrates. Therefore, smelters may face shortage of raw materials in the near future. Some smelters have already indicated that they may cut production. The raw material field of waste also faces these problems. Therefore, the estimated domestic production will decline in July-August. In the second half of the year, national policies and environmental pressures will continue to affect domestic production. The tin market in 2007 is expected to have a shortage of about 20,000 tons. The author believes that the rise in tin prices is not over, and there may still be a surge in the second half of the year and hit a new high.
In the second half of the year, with the resumption of production of some smelters in Indonesia and the sharp increase in Chinese refined tin production, supply will improve. However, there are still uncertainties in the policy. Will the Indonesian smelters reach a smooth production level? Will China impose export tariffs? How will the impact of the changes in China's welfare factory tax rebate policies on the market? These issues will directly affect the international market? supply.
Price Review In the first half of 2007, under the condition of supply shortage, the tin price basically continued the strong growth in the second half of 2006. In January-February, the price rose almost linearly. In March and April, the rally began to weaken. In the mid-to-late May to the month of June, the tin price did not hit a high point again, and it was basically adjusted around 14,000 US dollars.
In the first half of 2007, the highest price of tin for LME for three months was 15,200 U.S. dollars per ton (April 18th), the lowest price was 9,850 U.S. dollars per tonne (January 9th), and the average price was 13,295.48 U.S. dollars per ton, which was the same period in 2006. This is an increase of 64.38%. The highest spot price of 14,700 US dollars / ton (April 17), the lowest price of 10,125 US dollars / ton (January 9th), the average price of 13407.7 US dollars / ton, compared with the same period in 2006 rose by 66.29%.
Domestic prices also rose steadily in the first half of the year, from less than 90,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 11,500 yuan in April, an increase of about 30%. But overall, domestic prices are not as strong as international prices. In the first half of 2007, the average price of the domestic capital market was 10,2583.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 27.48% compared with the same period in 2006.
Price stimulates a substantial increase in China's production In the first half of 2007, under the stimulation of high tin prices, China's tin production increased significantly, of which the increase in production of reclaimed tin was the most important. According to statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Association, China's tin production increased 13.48% year-on-year to 60,716 tons from January to May 2007, an increase that was relatively large. Among them, the increase in output of Jiangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan is relatively large, both in double digits. Jiangxi's tin production increased by 28.55% year-on-year to 2,157 tons, while Hunan's production increased by 24.24% year-on-year to 8,763 tons, while Yunnan's production increased by 11.64% to 35,502 tons. Jiangxi's refined tin production has been increasing faster this year, especially in the Luzhou region, where more new electric furnaces are on the line. Jiangxi's current major tin ingot brands are Chixi, Nanshan, Huashan, Jinjiang and Baita, all of which are actively producing refined tin.
According to the statistics of the China Nonferrous Metals Association, China's tin concentrate output was 24,537 tons in January-May 2007, a decrease of 1.59% year-on-year. However, there is a big gap between the official tin concentrate data and refined tin production. According to the previous calculation method, the author considers that 25% of refined tin production is used as recycled raw materials, and the production of tin concentrate from January to May of 2007 is reversed. It is 47,404 tons.
China's consumption continues to increase, but its growth rate slows slightly. In the first half of 2007, China’s economy continued to maintain a steady and steady growth. The consumption of tin also maintained an increase under a good environment, but the growth rate slowed down. The electronics manufacturing industry as a whole continues to increase rapidly. However, as the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar continues to rise, the low price advantage of China's electronics manufacturing industry will gradually weaken, resulting in a decline in exports. Affected by this, the consumption growth rate of solder is also falling compared with the same period in 2006.
With the transfer of tin plate production capacity in Europe and South Korea to China, the tin consumption of tinplate in China is gradually increasing. In the first half of 2007, the output of tinplate production in China was relatively fast. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of tinplate in China from January to May 2007 was 578,300 tons, an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period of 2006, and tin consumption of tinplates was estimated to be about 2,300 tons.
Due to the competition and cost pressures at home and abroad, tin chemical industry has shrunk. Chemical producers in the Shandong area have reduced production or stopped production, and consumption has decreased. However, the production of Yunxi and Huaxi Chemicals is still relatively normal, partially offsetting the decrease in other regions.
From January to May, the export volume of China's tin ingots increased greatly. According to the latest customs statistics, China's tin ingot exports reached 13,536.708 tons from January to May, an increase of 74.82% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, international tin prices continued to be higher than domestic prices, and exports had greater profits, leading to a significant increase in China’s exports. Many companies basically used up their export quotas for the first half of the year in April. However, it is expected that exports in the second half of the year may be reduced. On the one hand, they will be limited by export quotas. On the other hand, domestic prices may become stronger in the second half of the year.
This year China's imports of tin ingots have decreased substantially. To a large extent, it was influenced by Indonesia's reorganization of crude tin smelters and new export regulations restricting crude tin exports. From January to May, China's imports of tin ingots were only 2,206.387 tons, a decrease of 75.23% year-on-year. The number of tin ingots imported from Indonesia was 973.828 tons, a decrease of 81.78% year-on-year. From January to May of this year, the net export volume of China's tin ingots was 12,788.39 tons, which was far higher than the levels in the same period in 2005 and 2006.
Outlook of the market outlook As Indonesia successively issued export licenses and production licenses for 12 enterprises, the Indonesian government's adjustment of the tin production industry has basically ended, and relevant policies have also been issued. In the second half of the year, we estimate that production in Indonesia will recover, but the increase in production will be limited. In addition, the project of Yunnan Tin's nearly 10,000 tons of mines and smelters in Indonesia is expected to start in August and it is estimated that there will be several hundred tons of production per month.
China's tin production in the second half of the year will continue to increase. But after the implementation of the new welfare factory tax rebate policy in July, the market is facing a big adjustment. Many domestic tin producers relying on welfare companies to digest concentrates without tickets changed the procurement channels. The tin concentrates on the market were unusually tight, and none of the tin concentrates without tickets attracted attention. Mining companies are currently unwilling to reduce the sales price of concentrates to supplement the taxes paid by smelters for the purchase of no-bill concentrates. Therefore, smelters may face shortage of raw materials in the near future. Some smelters have already indicated that they may cut production. The raw material field of waste also faces these problems. Therefore, the estimated domestic production will decline in July-August. In the second half of the year, national policies and environmental pressures will continue to affect domestic production. The tin market in 2007 is expected to have a shortage of about 20,000 tons. The author believes that the rise in tin prices is not over, and there may still be a surge in the second half of the year and hit a new high.
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