Among the 68 chemical products monitored by the Business Club, the proportion of up products reached 55.9%, of which the monthly gains of adipic acid, propane, and nitric acid were 13.2%, 12.76%, and 10.48%, respectively, both exceeding 10%; The ratio was 38.2%, of which the drop in hydrochloric acid reached 34.29%, followed by light soda ash and acrylic acid, with monthly declines of 7.29% and 6.42%, respectively. Among them, organic chemicals generally performed strongly, with the benzene-aniline-MDI industrial chain, the toluene-TDI industrial chain, and adipic acid widely used.
People in the industry believe that the strong fluctuation of crude oil is the primary reason for boosting the confidence of the chemical industry and directly brings cost support to downstream products. Taking propane as an example, its price rose from 6,019 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,788 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the price was almost refurbished daily, with an increase of 12.8%.
This time, the rise in propane was due to the fact that some refinery companies started batch inspections, which led to a reduction in the supply of raw materials, coupled with a decrease in inventory after downstream dealers and a decrease in imports in January. At the end of February, international crude oil suddenly rose, making raw gas prices soar, and the originally slowing propane market was once again hot.
When looking at the price of propane in the market, the analyst of Qishen Chemical Sub-Co., Shu Qimin said cautiously that, if crude oil prices cannot maintain high prices, the increase in propane prices will decrease, or in a narrow range.
Second, there are cost drivers behind the boost in chemical market conditions. Under the impetus of rising prices of raw materials such as crude oil, acetone, liquid ammonia, propylene, and liquid chlorine, the prices of various chemical products such as adipic acid, propane, nitric acid, and epichlorohydrin rose significantly in February. Taking epichlorohydrin as an example, its upstream propylene began to increase prices at the end of last year, and it stabilized at the beginning of February, which was nearly 20%, directly driving the price of epichlorohydrin. In a similar situation, the soaring liquid chlorine in February led to a rebound in the low price of nitric acid.
In addition, the impact of supply and demand changes in February on chemical products is deepening. As adipic acid, propane, and phenol manufacturers are at a low level, the supply of products exceeds demand, and the prices follow the trend. With sufficient supply in the market, the 1.6 million tons of soda ash produced in Qinghai Kunlun and Fengcheng in Xuzhou will be released in concentration in February. The impact on the domestic market has been enormous, and the price of soda ash has been forced to go lower again.
Affected by the continuous rise of crude oil, alkanes, aromatics, olefins and downstream polyurethane products performed well, but the downstream demand of the chemical industry continued to be sluggish, and some varieties went into deep finishing. Business Club expects that in the middle and late March, the demand in the chemical market will effectively increase, the market trading atmosphere will warm, chemical products may usher in a wave of longer-term rising prices, and recently they are optimistic about pesticide intermediates, aromatic hydrocarbons, polyurethanes, and coatings. And phosphorus chemical products.
In terms of basic chemical industry, as the weather becomes warmer, the spring plough and fertilizer increase gradually, and the domestic urea market gradually picks up, rising out of a wave of rising prices, but the uptrend is too fast, the high price has led to recent dealers' purchases are not active, and recent prices have stabilized and stabilized. Follow-up needs to observe changes in preferential policies for fertiliser rail transport. Domestic ammonia currently has a balance between basic supply and demand, and the price of the previous period has risen too quickly. It has fallen slightly this week. Ammonium chloride is continuing the hot market, strong market demand, manufacturers are basically no inventory, have continued to increase prices. In addition, some phosphate ore companies introduced new prices and their products have risen, but the turnover has been poor.
From the expansion of the chemical industry to the petrochemical industry, nearly 60% of the 100 petrochemical varieties monitored by the Business Society rose in February. Liu Xintian, chief analyst of the China Commodity Research Center, analyzed that the rise in crude oil has raised the overall cost of petrochemical products (especially midstream products), and the price increase is logical. However, the demand for petrochemical market is also increasing.
He said that in March, the petrochemical market may still be dominated by upswing, and mid-stream products will have a higher or higher price increase than upstream and downstream products, and prices will remain steady or fall. This will increase compared with February.
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