The pharmaceutical industry in 2009: optimistic growth overall optimistic

In fact, the outbreak of the financial crisis has brought opportunities for the expansion of imports, and the import business of some foreign trade companies has done a good job.

From January to October, import and export data showed that despite the ferocious international financial crisis, the fundamentals of the sustained and steady growth of the pharmaceutical industry in China will still be maintained.

"The real crisis in the pharmaceutical industry may occur in March and April next year." Recently, Zhou Xiaoming, president of the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products, said at the annual meeting of the Chamber of Commerce. According to a survey initiated by the Medicare Chamber of Commerce, most of the industry’s opinion is that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to show definite growth next year.

Keep on flying

Despite the ferocious international financial crisis, as of now, the fundamentals of the sustained and steady growth of the pharmaceutical industry in China have been maintained, forming a big contrast with other industries that are affected by the crisis and becoming bright spots in the industry.

The data released by the National Development and Reform Commission shows that from January to October this year, the value added of China's pharmaceutical industry increased by 18.3% year-on-year. The output of chemical raw materials was 1.68 million tons, an increase of 5.8%; the output of proprietary Chinese medicines was 926,000 tons, an increase of 18.4%. The data provided by the China Medical Insurance Association also showed that from January to October, the import and export volume of medical and health products had exceeded the US$40 billion mark, an increase of 30.7% year-on-year, and all the import and export data hit a record high. "From the current statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, pharmaceutical foreign trade is the only industry that has grown by more than 30%."

According to statistics, the total amount of pharmaceutical exports in the first 10 months was 26.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35.2% year-on-year, and the growth in exports of western medicine and medical device products was 30%.

the above. Among them, the export of western drug raw materials was US$15.07 billion, an increase of 36.95% year-on-year; the export of Western medicines was US$925 million, an increase of 47.98% year-on-year; the export of biochemical drugs was US$718 million, an increase of 41.38%; the export of medical devices was US$9.025 billion, an increase of 33.37%. .

"There is no doubt that the total import and export of medical and health products will reach 45 billion U.S. dollars this year. Exports of 30 billion U.S. dollars will also be basically a foregone conclusion," said Zhou Xiaoming. Moreover, despite some adjustments in individual market rankings, there has been no major change in the pattern of foreign trade that has been formed for a long time. Asia, Europe, and North America remain China’s top three trading partners.

Zhou Xiaoming believes that the current global economic downturn, China's pharmaceutical foreign trade still grows mainly due to four aspects: First, the pharmaceutical industry's own rigid demand; Second, China's raw material medicine, medical equipment and other industries in the international market have a certain degree of competitiveness; The products of India and other countries cannot replace China's products; the fourth is that medical foreign trade is mostly long-term orders, and the current data is basically orders in the first half or earlier.

Or meet the cold

According to the latest report released by an authoritative medical consulting agency in the United States, the global economic recession will have a severe impact on the pharmaceutical industry in the United States and Europe. The growth rate of the global pharmaceutical economy will decline by 1 to 2 percentage points next year, and the growth rate of the US pharmaceutical economy will decline by 2 to At 3 percentage points, it is expected that the real impact of the crisis on China's pharmaceutical industry is likely to show up later in the first half of next year.

Xu Ming, Director of the General Division of China Medicare Association, said that at present, there are more than 20 pharmaceutical companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, etc. in China, except that Shenzhen Mindray’s share price has remained relatively stable, and other pharmaceutical companies’ existing The stock price fell below the initial issue price.

As early as the beginning of October, 25% of the 344 biotechnology companies listed on Nasdaq in the United States had a stock price below US$1, or they could not obtain adequate market assessments and were on the edge of delisting.

According to a Shanghai company, a foreign customer of the company signed an order with the business staff at the European exhibition in early October, and issued a notice requesting the Shanghai company to postpone the shipment. The reason was that due to the financial crisis, foreign funds had problems and the order execution could only be temporarily frozen. . Therefore, in terms of compliance, most companies have expressed strict control over export risks. At present, there are few cases of sluggish bad debts, and the risk of foreign exchange settlement is under control.

In addition, many companies have reported that in addition to the financial crisis, Chinese manufactured products have also begun to face new challenges: First, the credibility crisis, because the price of export products rose too much in the first half of the year, and some companies did not perform the original low-cost contracts; This is a product quality crisis. The “Sanlu milk powder incident” has caused many foreign customers to lose confidence in Chinese products. These factors may have more direct impact on the export of Chinese pharmaceutical products.

Overall optimistic

For the upcoming 2009, the majority view is that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to show definite growth.

A survey of 100 major import and export pharmaceutical companies showed that more than half of the companies are optimistic about the foreign trade of pharmaceuticals next year, and investment institutions’ investment advice for pharmaceutical stocks remains at the “carefully recommended” rating. According to a number of foreign and authoritative consulting agencies recently revealed that China's pharmaceutical industry has become a new destination for international investment funds with its steady growth. The future prospects of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry are generally optimistic. The statistical results of the Ministry of Commerce also show that the amount of foreign investment in China has shown significant growth.

Analysts in the industry believe that the tightening of markets such as Europe and the United States is certain, but the domestic pharmaceutical industry has a clear policy orientation, and endogenous growth is stable. The growth of the industry may slow down and the overall outlook remains positive.

In fact, the outbreak of the financial crisis has brought opportunities for the expansion of imports, and the import business of some foreign trade companies has done a good job.

Zhou Xiaoming told reporters that after the financial crisis, the devaluation of currencies such as the US dollar and the euro led to a decline in the prices of international energy and bulk raw materials. Domestic enterprises could use the opportunity to expand imports, importing large quantities of foreign specialty raw materials, patented technologies, environmental protection, and some key equipment. , for product and equipment updates, improve production efficiency. "From a deep level, expanding imports will help optimize the structure of pharmaceutical imports and exports, balance foreign trade, and reduce the possibility of trade friction."

He suggested the introduction of specific measures to encourage imports and “going out” as soon as possible, and help companies import core technologies, key equipment, and patented products from countries and regions such as Europe and the United States, encourage overseas mergers and acquisitions and equity investments to improve the international competitive advantages of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. .

data

Recently, the China Medicare Association conducted a survey of 100 pharmaceutical companies engaged in import and export business. The relevant data shows that about 50.8% of companies believe that compared with 2008, international demand will decrease in 2009, and that international demand will be basically About 16.1% of the holders are flat, and the rest holds growth views. It is believed that the export value of international trade in medicine in 2009 will fall by 24.6%. 27% of the respondents believe that they will remain flat, and nearly half of the remaining enterprises still indicate that the export value will rise; More than half of the enterprises believe that the number of international trade in pharmaceuticals in 2009 will remain flat or increase, with only 28.7% indicating that they will decline; and for export prices, about 22% of respondents believe that they will fall, and the rest will rise or rise steadily.