Since the beginning of this year, China's steel production and supply have maintained a relatively high growth rate. The growth in international market demand has absorbed a considerable portion of domestic resources, and the development of the domestic steel market is generally balanced. Many people in the iron and steel industry secretly breathed a sigh of relief, but they overlooked the new characteristics of changes in the domestic market that are of great significance to the development of China's steel market in the coming years.
Li Shijun, deputy secretary-general of the China Iron and Steel Association, once said that after the rapid growth of the steel industry in various countries, there are generally two important "turning points". The first "inflection point" has changed from "a period of high growth" to " In the period of low growth, the second important "inflection point" (often referred to as the "peak") appears in the phase of "low speed growth" to "decline/zero growth." What we are most concerned about now is whether the first “inflection point†of China's steel industry has changed from high-speed growth to low-speed growth.
On the surface, China's steel industry still maintains a relatively high growth rate this year. From January to August, the cumulative output of crude steel reached 273 million tons, an increase of 18.6% over the same period of last year. From this figure alone, compared to 2013, although the growth rate of crude steel fell by nearly 6 percentage points from 24.6%, the increase rate fell by nearly 1/4, but it is still a very high growth rate. However, if we look at the changes in domestic demand, the situation will be very different.
Since the inventory change figures are not available, we first replace domestic demand with domestic apparent consumption. Exports of steel and steel billets increased significantly this year. Excluding net exports, apparent domestic consumption of crude steel increased by only 13.1% from the same period of the previous year from January to August. In August, it only increased by 4.1%, which is the second time in the year that the monthly growth rate has fallen below 10%. Of course, since the domestic steel market fell for the second consecutive month in August, it is not ruled out that the dealers will reduce the inventory to increase the actual supply during the month, so the actual domestic consumption growth in the month may be higher than 4.1%. At the same time, due to seasonal factors such as typhoon and heavy rain, construction in the southern provinces was affected, and the reduction in consumption also had seasonal and accidental factors. However, the apparent slowdown in apparent consumption growth is a particularly noteworthy phenomenon.
In the market economy and buyer's market conditions, demand is the most important factor in determining development. Steel growth can be ignored by government orders, but it must obey market demand. If the domestic steel consumption in the fourth quarter and next year can continue this trend this year, 2014 is likely to leave it as a turning point in the transition from high-speed growth to low-speed growth and leave its unique traces in the history of China's steel industry.
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