The recent rebound in the LED market has also stimulated the strength of the LED stock market, mainly due to the change in shipment data in the LED lighting field. In the off-season characteristics of the fourth quarter of the year, the shipment data of LED lighting products in the fourth quarter of last year was significantly higher than the industry expectation.
The main logic of the current LED market is the general lighting driver. Different from previous backlights and commercial lighting drivers, General Lighting is a true billion-dollar market. It is expected that the global civil lighting market will exceed 100 billion in 2014 for the first time. It is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in 2015. The two-year review growth rate is around 60. LEDs ushered in the biggest point of explosion.
Lighting as the largest blue ocean of LEDs, upstream and downstream have been waiting for the right outbreak opportunity. As the downstream data continues to improve, the industry generally believes that the era of low prices is coming, the bursting period of the LED lighting market has arrived, and the new round of channel killing is also on the string.
The low-cost era is approaching the counter-cyclical volume, and the prices and incandescent lamps are getting closer and closer. Major research institutes have given high growth expectations for LED lighting. It is expected that China's LED lighting products will grow by more than 80% in 2014.
As the last and largest increment of the LED industry, lighting has been highly regarded since 2009. However, the timing of its outbreak has been unsatisfactory. The reasons are: first, the driving force of overseas markets is insufficient, and the second is also related to its lack of price.
At present, the North American ban campaign has started, product prices have fallen rapidly, and barriers to the promotion of LED lights are being eliminated. LEDinside analyst Wang Fei believes that it is not difficult to observe the recent retail price of LED bulbs in the mainland. The number of LED bulbs sold in the market has soared. The distribution of lumens per dollar tends to converge, and the value center moves down. The era of low-cost LED lighting has arrived.
The most important trend in the LED lighting market in 2014 is that the lighting industry has shifted from brand-scale economy competition to manufacturing economies of scale plus the scale economy of the brand, which makes the industrial concentration of LED lighting era higher than traditional lighting. Of course, from another dimension, this has always been the LED lighting of the channel, and the killing in 2014 will be even more fierce.
In the industry model, Philips, Foshan Lighting and other well-known traditional manufacturers at home and abroad have obvious advantages in first-hand, and more choices to promote LED products in the original dealers, stores and other channels; NVC, Sunshine, Op, Sanxiong, etc. The local lighting manufacturers have increased their cooperation with dealers while increasing their investment in the store to increase channel coverage and brand awareness. Changfang, Hongli and other manufacturers extending from LED packaging to downstream applications. Because LED application products account for a relatively low proportion of revenue, and because of the control costs, the investment in its own channels is relatively conservative, mostly based on the dealer model.
Another emerging channel that cannot be ignored is e-commerce. The data shows that in the Tmall platform, during the double eleventh this year, the sales of the lighting brands such as Op Lighting, Ao Duo, Chau Ming Han Yuan and other lighting brands have exceeded 10 million mark. Among them, Ou Pu Lighting is even the official flagship store of Tmall. The store sales of 57 million yuan proudly topped the list, ranking first in the building materials category. In 2013, the newly established Zhouming Hanyuan brand in Taobao Mall, the sales of products in the first hour of the double eleven began to exceed 3 million yuan.
The China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that the sales of LED lighting in the e-commerce channel has a potential for explosive growth. In 2012, the total sales of LED lighting products on Taobao and Jingdong platforms was about 3 billion yuan, accounting for only 7. The LED lighting market is expected to reach 20 or above by 2015.
Some analysts pointed out that due to the early Spring Festival of the Lunar Calendar in 2014, the industry will continue to maintain a booming production and sales situation under the superposition of factors such as stocking before the holiday and placing orders from overseas customers. After digesting stocks during the Spring Festival, March is expected to usher in a new wave of stocking.
Around the main line of demand for the general lighting market in Europe and the United States, investors can pay close attention to the growth and flexibility of the industry leader. First, pay attention to the European and American markets, the brands and foundry leading enterprises that have passed the relevant standards certification, such as NVC Lighting and Sunlight Lighting; the second is to pay attention to the high correlation with downstream applications, and the finer links in the industry chain. Leading enterprises, such as Dehao Runda in the chip segment, Farah Electronics in the capacitor circuit, and third, focus on the transformation of electronics companies to consumer companies, looking for millet in the LED field, such as rectangular lighting.
Sunshine lighting: production and sales simultaneously, push up LED lighting growth and increase capital factory, increase LED lighting capacity. The company plans to increase capital of 45 million yuan to Jinzhai subsidiary. After the capital increase, the registered capital of the company will reach 50 million yuan. We expect Jinzhai to add 2 million LED light sources and 300,000 LED lamps per month, which is close to Shangyu's factory, which is equivalent to 30 of existing LED lighting production capacity. Jinzhai Company was established in June 2013. The preparatory work has been completed in the early stage. After the capital increase is completed, the land will be purchased and the plant will be built. We expect to start production in 2015 and respond to the rapidly growing demand of the industry.
Established a sales company in Australia and opened up the local market. At the same time, the company plans to invest 1 million Australian dollars (about 5.4 million yuan), set up Australia's Ai Nite Lighting Company in Australia, engaged in the sale of lighting products, especially LED lighting products. This is different from India's Ai Nite Lighting, which was cancelled last year. The Indian company is a joint venture company and has an independent factory. The Australian company is a wholly-owned company that focuses on energy-saving lighting sales. Since Australia banned incandescent lamps as early as 2009, energy-efficient lighting products have grown rapidly in recent years. In 2012, the lighting market capacity was 1.64 billion US dollars, and about 510 million US dollars were imported from China. We believe that the establishment of the company will help Sunshine's development of the Australian market. In the next two years, the company's LED lighting revenue growth rate, we expect the Australian company will contribute to 2014 sales, Jinzhai factory gradually put into production in 2015, so the company's LED lighting in 2014 and 2015 revenue growth to 110 and 60.
Dehao Runda: Deeply ploughing both ends of the smile curve, based on its own brand building concern 1: The company is committed to flip chip development, light efficiency and production costs have improved. Because the company's LED business started later than other competitors, so The company hopes to shorten the gap with its rivals by adopting different technical routes. First of all, the company's procurement of epitaxial wafer production equipment is all 4-inch MOCVD, which is currently the world's smallest production of 4-inch epitaxial wafers. Compared with the current popular 2-inch epitaxial wafers, the 4-inch epitaxial wafer can increase the effective cutting area during the chip cutting process, thereby reducing the production cost of a single chip. Secondly, the company is committed to the development of internationally advanced flip chip technology and has been mass-produced. Compared with traditional dressing chips, flip-chips have higher luminous efficiency and are mostly used in high-power lighting equipment such as street lamps. And the improvement of the single chip light efficiency reduces the number of chips used in the light source, and improves the stability of the LED light source. At the same time, the cost of flip chip production can be reduced by about 20 compared to the packaged chip.
Concern 2: The company cooperates with NVC Lighting to actively develop the downstream application market. Since the end of 2012, it has become the largest shareholder of NVC Lighting. The sales channel of LED lighting products of the company has been significantly improved. In view of the good reputation of NVC Lighting in the engineering contractors, the company's products can be sold to the engineering and commercial lighting market through NVC's channels, while enjoying a higher level of gross profit. And NVC has more than 3,000 stores in the country, providing strong support for the company's LED lamps in the retail sales.
Concern 3: The company completed the integration of the industry chain, with brand building as the core goal. The company has completed the integration of the entire industry chain of upstream chips, midstream packaging and downstream lighting applications in the LED field. From the perspective of the pattern, the company has invested the most in upstream chips and downstream channels, and currently only has a medium-sized packaging plant in the middle. The main reason for the formation of this dumbbell-type industry layout is that the chip and channel are the technical core and marketing core of the LED industry. At the same time, the enterprises that master both of them will take the initiative in the market competition, which is similar to the development of the current international LED manufacturers. . In the middle of the package, due to the uncertainty of technological changes and the domestic sufficient capacity construction, the company's investment willingness in this field is reduced, so the investment is relatively small. The main purpose of the company to complete the integration of the industry chain is to promote its own product brand with its own technology and channel advantages, in order to seek higher product profit and long-term stable development model.
in conclusion:
The company's chip production capacity ranks among the top three in China, and it masters the core production technology. While meeting the market demand, it can also get rid of the dependence of the company's own application products on other upstream chip manufacturers, and achieve double benefits in domestic sales and external sales. At the same time, NVC Lighting, as the company's main channel provider, enjoys a high reputation both in the engineering and retail sectors, laying a solid foundation for the company's own brand building.
Farah Electronics: The rapid growth of film capacitors in the new energy sector led the company to engage in the traditional capacitor industry and the low-value blue-chip image in the capital market before the company's performance and valuation doubled, but as the company focused its strategy on new energy film capacitors (Photovoltaic, etc.), especially in the middle of 14 years, the company's new energy expansion project was officially put into operation, and the future growth space was opened, which will effectively improve its performance and long-term valuation. As the company moves from a low-value blue chip to a growth stock, we believe there will be a big investment opportunity.
Investment points:
The company is a manufacturer of film capacitors (metallized films for capacitors) with international competitiveness. The proportion of new energy capacitors will be doubled in the past three years. At present, the company's film capacitor revenue scale is about 1 billion yuan, the downstream market is divided by industry: lighting 50, home appliances 25, communications 5, power supply 10, new energy 10 or so; we estimate the proportion of new energy capacitors in the next few years will be The current 10 will be raised to above 25.
At present, the photovoltaic inverter market in China's new energy field is growing rapidly. At present, domestic brands such as Sunshine Power are dominant in the domestic inverter market (Sunshine Power is the largest inverter manufacturer in China with a market share of around 30). In addition to IGBT imports from abroad, other capacitors and other electronic components are mainly made in China. . Therefore, we expect that the demand for capacitors for PV inverters will increase significantly in the next three years with the outbreak of the domestic PV market.
The company's strategic focus: new energy film capacitors, revenue of new energy business in the past three years is expected to double. In the future, the company will adhere to the new energy strategy and launch the expansion project of film capacitors for new energy in August 2012, investing 112 million yuan and adding 300 million uF/year of production capacity of film capacitors for new energy. At present, the company's new energy business income of about 40 million yuan in 12 years, estimated 80 million yuan in 13 years, 14-15 years is still expected to achieve continuous doubling, reaching more than 300 million yuan.
Subsequent production capacity is not a problem, and the company has strong financial strength to meet market demand at any time. The company's capital structure is very healthy. As of Q3 2013, the company has only 8 million short-term liabilities, and the funds on the account are as high as 630 million yuan. We assess the downstream demand such as rapid growth, and the company has the ability to meet the demand.
Rectangular lighting: The lighting package leader confirmed that the strong Hengqiang accelerated benefit in the second quarter was slightly lower than expected, mainly because the profitability of the expansion and layout was slightly lower than expected. In the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of 227 million yuan, a month-on-month increase of 67,68%; net profit of 21.74 million yuan, an increase of 111, 29, respectively, compared with the same period of last year, slightly lower than expected. 10. Although the industry's economic boom broke out simultaneously Inflection point, but the first quarter performance of the inflection point was slightly lower than expected, and the expansion of production and lighting application layout is the main reason for the poor profitability.
Profitability will be affected by the Matthew effect and peak season demand, and the follow-up is expected to be significantly optimized. The net profit margin in the second quarter was 9.56, which was less than the industry average (about 10). Considering that the company's key components are self-sufficient to enjoy 3-5 points of profit improvement, the subsequent improvement is larger. 1) In terms of gross profit margin, depreciation and cost amortization accounted for a large proportion in the early stage of heavy volume, Q2 was 24, which was 7 percentage points lower than the 31 gross margin of 12Q4 components after self-sufficiency; we expect gross profit margin to rise to above 26 in the second half. 2) In terms of expenses, the management expense ratio dropped slightly more than expected; but actively expanding the application areas (including advertising fees and channel construction) caused the sales expense ratio to rise by more than expected by about 3 percentage points; we believe that with the expansion of scale effect and application layout The core quarter is spent, the company's expense ratio is expected to be significantly optimized, and the annual fee rate is expected to be controlled within 12.
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