"Dual Points" Appraisal Postpones China's New Energy Vehicle Market into the Point-Driven Era

On September 28, only the last two days left from the “11” holiday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs and General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, finally issued a joint report on the “average fuel consumption and new fuel consumption of passenger vehicle companies”. Energy Vehicle Integration Management Method." This has been the industry's "double score" New Deal that has been hot for more than a year, and finally boots fall.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday of the National Day just passed, this news quickly got fermented. It was only a half year away from the date when the April 1st of 2018 was formally implemented.

The final version of the “double-integration” policy stipulates that no examination will be conducted on the new energy points for car companies in the year 2018, and the percentage requirements for new energy vehicles in 2019 and 2020 will be 10% and 12%, respectively. At the same time, the 2019 annual new energy automobile positive points can be carried forward for a year. In addition, new energy negative points generated in 2019 can be compensated using positive points generated in 2020. In other words, it is actually a combination of assessments in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, 2020 is the time for all car companies to really face the new energy points exam.

One-year extension of the assessment

From the two requests for opinions to the final release, the biggest change in the “double-integration” policy is the postponement of the implementation deadline. "Double points" will still be implemented in 2018. The assessment of setting the average fuel consumption of enterprises will start in April 2018. However, until 2019, the proportion of new energy points will be required. In this way, the time will be given to the car. Manufacturers are well prepared to optimize the product line layout.

Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, explained: “The delay of the time node is mainly due to buffering time for enterprises.” Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, also said in an interview with the Times Weekly reporter that the car The product development cycle takes at least 3 years, plus the fastest production cycle takes 1 year. This is 4 years. Therefore, it is more prudent to delay the assessment for one year and leave the auto companies more time to adjust their strategies, improve their products, and plan production capacity.

“If the compulsory ratio of 2018 is to reach 8%, then foreign car companies will basically fail to reach it.” Cui Dongshu said frankly. BYD, which has done quite well in the new energy sector, is also very much in favor of postponement of implementation. BYD has said that even today, some companies with large annual sales still do not have any new energy vehicles on the market, and from the viewpoint of market product structure, they are close to 40. % is SUV, so it is very unlikely that such a fuel vehicle will produce positive integration. Therefore, it is understandable to give a bit of buffer to the relatively high pressure car companies. In addition, this year's buffer period, but also allow domestic new energy vehicles have enough time to "mature", after all, now selling the Chinese brand electric vehicles, there is still a certain gap between the performance and the international advanced level.

However, according to the assessment of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the actual value of the new energy auto industry in 2016 is only about 3%. At the same time, the “Report on the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Companies in 2016” shows that of the 122 passenger vehicle companies that have been publicized, only 79 have completed the annual fuel consumption target value. From January to September this year, domestic sales of new energy passenger cars were 398,000 vehicles, mainly concentrated in BYD, Zhidou, BAIC New Energy, Chery New Energy, SAIC Roewe and other auto companies. If calculated by the 2019 standard, accumulated points The proportion is only 6.3%. From this point of view, it is still a matter of time and task to stipulate the completion of this policy as scheduled.

There is pressure in the near future and the future is not optimistic

After the introduction of the New Deal, the general opinion of the industry is that it will benefit its own brands and will deter foreign brands. In fact, from the perspective of self-owned brands, only car companies with a high proportion of new energy vehicles have greater advantages, and traditional car companies like the Great Wall and Changan are not less pressured than foreign car companies.

Taking Great Wall Motors, which focuses on SUV models, as an example, in the first eight months of this year, Great Wall Motor’s output was 492,100, of which, the output of new energy vehicles was 0.21 million. According to the “double-indicated” 2019 standard, Great Wall Motor needed The actual situation is 51,100, but the actual situation is that the completion rate is less than 20%; there are Chang'an Automobile, the first 8 months of this year sold a total of 730,000 new cars, new energy points need 73,000 points, alone to sell new energy models, can only accumulate 50,000 points, the gap is still more than 30%. In the short term, the pressure of various car companies is not small.

According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2016 were about 500,000 vehicles. Then four years, it needs to increase by three times. This high-intensity standard is indeed forcing foreign brands to adjust their Chinese strategies. In fact, the current proportion of new energy vehicles in many joint ventures is less than 1%. As a result, many European and American giants have formulated ambitious electric vehicle strategies and are expecting to catch up with the "high-speed train" that goes to China's new energy market.

The most prominent among them was the German car company. The Volkswagen Group took the lead in announcing that in 2025, Volkswagen Group's brands will launch more than 80 new electric models. Mercedes-Benz, who has won the crown of the luxury car market, plans to launch more than 10 models of Mercedes-Benz pure electric vehicles globally by 2022.

BMW's electric strategy is more radical. By 2025, BMW will provide 25 electric models. The French brand Renault has also recently revised its medium-term strategy, which is the expansion of new energy models as an important concern. In addition, the American car companies Ford and GM are also not to be outdone: Ford will be listed in the first half of 2018 domestic Mondeo Energi and a plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles, GM will release 20 new pure electric vehicles to the market by 2023 .

In addition, the modern Japanese Toyota, Honda, and Korean are all chasing you. Zhang Zhiyong, a veteran automaker, predicted from the Times Weekly reporter that before the end of the year, it will be a time of heavy volume for new energy vehicles. At the same time, the growth rate from September to December will need to reach 40%, which is not easy to achieve.

Industry faces shuffle

According to the “Double Points” calculation, by 2020, the average fuel consumption of the passenger vehicle industry in China will reach 5.0 liters/hundred kilometers, with a cumulative reduction of about 60 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. According to the statistics of the CLUCC, the mainstream mainstream new energy car companies in China Less than 20 companies, if they were ranked in rows, simulated the assessment of 2019 with current results. Only 7 companies can obtain new energy positive points, namely BAIC, BYD, Geely, Zhongtai, JAC, and Chery. SAIC Passenger Vehicles will be able to laugh at the end after two years. It is very likely that they are just a few of them.

The data shows that in the first eight months of this year, BYD sold a total of 239,000 new cars, of which sales of new energy vehicles were 58,700. According to the 2019 standard, BYD needs 23,900 points, and at least 117.4 million points; JAC's total new energy sales this year will increase by 50% year-on-year, which will give companies sufficient positive points.

Industry analysts believe that the most anxious now may be the general public and GM. At present, the Volkswagen Group sells only two new energy models, the Audi A3 E-TRON and the Audi Q7 E-TRON, for the new energy vehicles sold in China. This will only require two new energy points. Model. Although Volkswagen has taken the first step and Jianghuai joint venture, the first pure electric vehicle may be listed next year, but even if it sells 80,000 pure electric vehicles to offset the negative points, it is still very difficult.

General Motors currently sells two models of hybrid vehicles, but sales are very limited. Only by inserting and mixing models, GM will need to sell 156,000 vehicles next year. Now, General Motors has placed its treasure on the Po Chun E100. Sales tasks are also difficult to accomplish.

In any case, the implementation of the “double-integration” policy will certainly accelerate the industrialization of new energy vehicles for foreign automakers in China, and it will also be conducive to the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it may inspire more foreign companies to enter into joint ventures with Chinese self-owned brands. Cui Dongshu sees it further. He said that this indicates that the development of new energy vehicles in China has entered the point-driven era from the subsidy era, and at the same time provided sufficient guarantees for the sustainable development of new energy vehicles.