Guangzhou Customs latest statistics show that from January to July 2010, Guangdong exported 25.966 million tires, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year; and from a national point of view, the first half of 2010 even increased by 30%. However, behind an oasis, the hardships have not yet arrived.
Exports grow but profit drops
According to the latest statistics of Guangzhou Customs, as of the end of July 2010, Guangdong exported 25.966 million tires, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year; export value was US$320 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%.
The national data performance is more eye-catching. According to relevant data, during the first half of 2010, a total of 86.679 million automotive tires were exported, which was a year-on-year increase of 30%; the value of export delivery was US$3.968 billion, an increase of 37.8% year-on-year.
“The reason why Guangdong's tire export volume and price increase in the first seven months of 2010 was mainly due to the gradual recovery of the global economy.†Chang Yingzhi, a research fellow in the chemical industry of China Investment Advisors, analyzed in an interview.
However, good-looking export data does not conceal the reality of the decline or even loss of profits of tire companies. Most of the tires listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have negative net profit growth in 2010, and some companies have even suffered huge losses.
According to relevant department statistics, from January to May 2010, the national tire company's profit rate was only 4.01%.
A variety of pressure test tire companies
China National Rubber Industry Association tire branch (hereinafter referred to as "tire branch") said that the current tire industry already has excess capacity and excess product structure. All-steel truck tires are expected to exceed 90 million in 2010, nearly twice the “Eleventh Five-Year†tire development plan, and more than double the domestic demand forecast in 2010. In addition, according to statistics from the tire branch, in the first half of 2010, tire inventory increased by 57.7% year-on-year, and inventory growth has been significantly higher than the increase in output, output value, and sales revenue, and it is on the rise.
If the market is not completely heading for good conditions, the excessive expansion of production capacity will undoubtedly exacerbate competition, and the rise in tire raw materials such as natural rubber will become another “best spell†for tire companies.
At present, 70% of China's natural rubber imports rely on imports, while import prices rose from US$1459.3 per tonne in August 2009 to US$2428.4 in April 2010. Domestic natural rubber prices have also increased significantly. “The cost of tire companies has been greatly increased. Domestic tires have overcapacity, which makes domestic tires have limited room for price increases. It is expected that the profitability of domestic tire companies will decline in the second half of 2010.†Chang said.
While China’s tire exports have maintained rapid growth, hidden risks of new trade friction are also hidden. Chang Yongzhi stated that at present, China’s tire exports have been challenged by trade barriers, technical barriers, and environmental protection barriers. In addition to the United States, more than a dozen countries and regions, including the European Union, Brazil, Argentina, and India, also submitted anti-dumping and countervailing investigations to Chinese tire exporters.
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