Japanese car "nuclear" goes to "nuclear" to disrupt global wave from parts

On March 27, in Miyako Harbor, Iwate Prefecture, Japan, vehicles damaged by the earthquake and tsunami scattered on the square. According to survey data released by the US investigation company IHS on the 25th, due to the sharp decline in Japanese companies' production, parts imported from Japan cannot be delivered on time, and it is expected that production of cars worldwide will reduce production by 600,000 units by the end of March. If the production of Japanese companies fails to return to normal as soon as possible, after two months of earthquakes, worldwide production of cars may drop by as much as 30%. In addition to the automotive industry, the impact of the earthquake in Japan on other manufacturing supply chains is also gradually emerging.

Editor's note: General Motors Corp. was forced to close a factory in Louisiana last week. Most of the European plants at the Peugeot Citroen Group have also been forced to cut production. There is only one reason: Hitachi's factory manufacturing air flow sensors was shut down due to the earthquake. It should be noted that Hitachi's air flow sensors make up 60% of the world's total supply. In fact, Japan's silicon wafers account for 60% of the world's total production; Japan's production of BT resin for printed circuit boards accounts for 90% of the world's total output; Japan's auto industry and Europe and the United States three points. Japan is an important production base for various advanced parts and components. These parts are widely used in assembly of finished products in Asia and other parts of the world. The industrial shock wave formed by the earthquake in Japan is asking the world: How deep is it that everyone depends on this island nation?

The Japanese auto industry is slowly recovering from the "wounds" of the earthquake. On March 28th, Toyota Motor Corporation, which is reluctant to win the global sales championship in 2010, will restart the production of three hybrid vehicles such as the Prius and Lexus HS250h. The second-largest car maker in Japan, Honda, also produces a motorcycle factory in Kumamoto Prefecture. The production will resume today. In addition, Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. was rumors by the industry "will fully resume production on April 11."

Although the vitality has been restored, neither Japanese local media nor foreign media are optimistic about the rapid recovery of the Japanese auto industry in the short term. More importantly, the earthquake affected not only the large-scale suspension of production of automakers in Japan, but also the stagnation of parts supply. It may also damage the automobile industry in emerging countries. At the same time, the global automotive industry may also be reshuffled.

Serious losses in the short term Toyota Akio has recently apologized, not because of an uproar in the recall of the car, nor is it a loss in Toyota Motor, but the negative effect of a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan. “The earthquake affected the production base and also seriously affected Toyota dealers, suppliers and many other partners.” A few days ago, in a public statement, Mr. Toyoda stated that Toyota was temporarily in trouble because of the earthquake.

It is reported that Toyota is one of the few auto companies that have a large number of businesses in the northern region of Japan. Among them, several Miyagi factories in Toyota and Iwate prefectures have been affected. So, as early as the earthquake, Toyota announced for the first time that part of the company's plant will stop production. On the evening of March 16, Toyota announced again that it would postpone the shutdown date to March 22. According to media estimates, Toyota's production has been reduced by as much as 95,000 vehicles in just a few days. International investment bank Goldman Sachs Group issued a report predicting that the suspension of production caused by the earthquake will cause Toyota to lose more than 70 million U.S. dollars. Japan Nomura Securities predicts that if production is halved by the end of April this year, Toyota’s operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March 2012 may be reduced by 40 billion yen (approximately 490 million US dollars), or about 3%.

The other two companies, Honda and Nissan, are also less optimistic. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, Honda and Nissan lost nearly $25 million each day; Nomura Securities believes that Honda and Nissan’s operating profit will fall by 3.5% and 8%, respectively.

"Not only is sales and profits falling, but Japan's auto parts companies are also suffering from this disaster. The Japanese auto industry is known for its refinement and high efficiency. Many companies often produce with low inventory or even zero inventory. Nowadays, after the strong earthquake, the negative effects of this model have also emerged.” Yesterday, Zheng Zhijian management consulting partner Fu Zhiyong told the “International Financial News” reporter, “In a sense, the shortage of spare parts The consequences may be even more serious.” Honda and Mazda said on March 25 that they have stopped accepting orders for cars issued by US stores because of a shortage of spare parts. Mazda Motor Co., Ltd., in particular, does not have a large proportion of its operations in the seismic zone. However, due to shortages of parts and components, Mazda stopped production at four factories in western Japan on Monday and Tuesday.

Deutsche Bank analysts also pointed out: "Although in the next few days, we may gradually see the Japanese auto industry recover some of its production capacity, but because of energy supply and spare parts supply restrictions, the Japanese auto industry can hardly return to normal in the short term. Operating status."

It is worth noting that due to the continuous appreciation of the yen against the US dollar, the Japanese economy that relies on automobile exports may have to suffer major losses. At the same time, the number of Japanese auto exports may also decline as a result of damage to the port and delays in production.

Influence on the world As the world's third largest automotive producer, the strong earthquake has not only brought negative impact on the Japanese auto industry, but the global automotive industry has already been shaken. On March 26, according to the Xinhua News Agency, “Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd., is currently experiencing a significant reduction in production due to the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The production schedule of the Xiangfan factory is less than 1/3 of that of normal time, and it has fallen into half. Discontinued production.” From the analyst's point of view, this is not difficult to understand because there is data showing that by the end of 2010, Japan was China’s largest component importer.

"The vibrations of the Japanese auto industry will change the luxury car market in China." Fu Zhiyong believes that on the one hand, this part of the market is mainly imported from Japan, and domestic production is also relatively small; on the one hand, technology-oriented engine production is also Mainly concentrated in Japan's domestic production. At the same time, in the short term, the consumption of luxury models of German and American cars in the market will temporarily exceed Japanese cars.

Fu Zhiyong also believes that the overall negative impact on China's auto industry is relatively limited. “For example, in the spare parts industry, parts factories in China often follow the entire vehicle base. Apart from a few core technology products, auto parts supply It is difficult to fundamentally be affected by the pressure, and the current production pace in China remains normal.

Of course, the global span of Japanese cars is not limited to China. Renault Automobile Co., Ltd., which is inextricably linked with Nissan, Daihler’s Fuso Motors brand, and Volkswagen, which owns 19% of Suzuki Motor’s shares, will all be affected. One analyst cited as an example: "After a serious damage to a Hitachi auto parts plant, the supply of air flow sensors was under tremendous pressure. The major auto manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Renault-Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen used it. About 60% of the air flow sensors come from the company.”

In addition, an automotive market research company recently stated that “the shortage of Japanese-made parts may lead to a significant reduction in global vehicle production by about 30%, which is equivalent to the production of cars at the end of 2008 and early 2009 when the credit crisis and economic recession were deep.”

The long-term recovery can be scheduled for the future development of the Japanese auto industry, Japanese media analysis said, "Toyota, Honda and other major car companies will take the first step to resume production, but it will take time to return to normal conditions, especially It cannot ensure that the supply chain returns to normal."

However, Fu Zhiyong believes that strong earthquakes will not have a negative impact on the Japanese automobile industry for a long time. "First of all, after decades of development, the Japanese automobile industry has not only been a brand but also an excellent automotive technology, and has long been recognized by the world's consumers; Second, in the absence of core technology, as long as the normal recovery rhythm, it will sooner or later get out of trouble, as Toyota Motor suffered a "recall door" incident last year, but in the end the US market has firm footing, sales It's not worse than General Motors and other US domestic cars."

Analysts also optimistically predicted that “after this disaster, one possible outcome is that Japanese automakers such as Toyota will learn from automakers in Europe and the United States and firmly resolve to shift their core technologies to overseas markets. The Chinese market will naturally receive Japan. The expectations of the automotive industry.” In fact, in the planning announced before the earthquake, Toyota Motor has been continuously increasing the proportion of its business in the Chinese market. Mr. Toyoda bluntly stated that the Chinese market will become the top priority for the development of traction companies. "It is expected that by 2015, the proportion of the Chinese market in Toyota's global sales will rise to 15%."

There is also the view that after a year of strong earthquakes, the desire of most Japanese auto companies for industrial scale expansion will be temporarily impeded, and the layout of R&D, production, overseas parts factories, etc. may shrink, “as the Japanese auto companies are restrained. In the coming period, the original competition between Germany, the United States, and Japan will also evolve into a competition between Germany and the United States.