The European and U.S. exchanges pressure on the exchange rate to continuously upgrade the global exchange rate battle smoke

In recent weeks, the pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB has been continuously escalating. After the adoption of the "Exchange Rate Reform for Fair Trade Act" before the US House of Representatives in the 11th, senior European countries and senior US officials took turns to express their suspicions that the renminbi's underestimation has been launched against China. The pressure on the renminbi exchange rate has gradually evolved from the "solo" of the United States to Multi-national "big chorus".

At the joint annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank held on the 9th, the debate on the underestimation of the renminbi and the arrival of currency war has continued. On the 15th of this month, the United States will publish an exchange rate assessment report for major trading partners. At the end of the month, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meetings will be held in South Korea, and the G20 summit will be held in November to accept the “Economic Information Daily”. Many experts interviewed by the reporter believe that the RMB exchange rate issue will once again become the focus during this period. They suggested that I should resist foreign pressure and continue to reform the exchange rate formation mechanism internally.

In fact, not only is the renminbi, many non-US currencies have recently been subject to greater pressures for appreciation. Despite the two-pronged approach of the Bank of Japan, which has pushed the easing policy after directly intervening in the foreign exchange market, the yen has been very strong. The exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar hit a new high for a floating exchange rate for 27 years. The Thai baht hit a new high against the U.S. dollar in nearly 13 years. The Singapore dollar has continued to hit a high point since the exchange rate reform, and the Brazilian real exchange rate has continued to rise.

Therefore, after the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market, many export-oriented countries and emerging market countries also made some moves. The Thai government executives stated that they will pay close attention to the reasons for the appreciation of the exchange rate, and the camera will issue corresponding management measures; the Central Bank of Colombia recently announced that it will start buying at least US$20 million each day to prevent the local currency from valuing its pesos; South Korea also purchases US dollars to avoid rising Korean won. Fast; Vietnam has devalued its currency several times to stimulate exports.

Analysts pointed out that the current arguing of the renminbi's underestimation and the smoke of the exchange rate war are actually the political needs of the United States. The reason why the EU follows suit is also to pass on the appreciation risk to China under the weakening US dollar. Moreover, the West hopes to increase its competitiveness through the appreciation of the renminbi, stimulate the economy and increase employment. "Whether politically or economically, it is easier to transfer the burden of growth to foreign consumers than to stimulate domestic demand," the British "Financial Times" said on the 8th.

Ian Kahn, president of the International Monetary Fund, said recently that there are signs that some countries are trying to use their currencies as "weapons." The strong cooperative aspirations displayed by countries at the height of the crisis have now diminished. Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank [4.75 -0.21%], said in an interview with a reporter from the "Economic Information Daily" that the possibility of a full-scale outbreak of currency warfare due to state intervention is very small. However, he also pointed out that from a historical point of view, the United States is the world’s largest exchange rate manipulator. The current domestic economic recovery in the United States is a recovery without any increase in employment. It seems that the US government is under pressure from the public and it seems that there is no way out. From a technical point of view, the dollar has a large space for decline.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, reminded that the pressure for RMB appreciation not only comes from Europe and the United States, but also from all countries that have a trade deficit with China. In the future, China will face stronger RMB appreciation in both bilateral and multilateral aspects. pressure. “Every country has a new high against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, and will place its hopes on the appreciation of the renminbi. Japan, South Korea, and Brazil all want the renminbi to appreciate so as to increase the competitiveness of its export products.”

In addition, on the multilateral channel, China will also face pressure from the International Monetary Fund, the WTO, the G20 Seoul Summit and many other rounds of pressure. “The United States, which originally supported the IMF quota reform, suddenly proposed that it is unreasonable to link share adjustments to exchange rate reforms. The IMF quota reform was put forward three years ago. The G20 leaders pledged to send gold to the gold in January of last year. The transfer of 5% of the share of the brick-countries by the United States is not persuasive because of the pressure on the renminbi to appreciate.” said Zhang Zhixuan, an international affairs consultant at the Renmin University of China’s School of Finance and Economics and former executive director of the Chinese IMF.

In the face of this complex situation, experts said that I should withstand external pressure and adjust the RMB exchange rate autonomously. Industrial Bank [25.35 -0.20%] senior economist Lu political commissar said, "From the perspective of the international economic game, considering that China has become the third largest export market in the United States and the fastest growth rate, China may be the future of the United States energy-saving emission reduction With the largest export market for technology, and the fact that China holds a large number of US Treasuries, the US is essentially unable to launch a trade war. China should resist pressure and regulate the appreciation of the renminbi autonomously."

In fact, the official voice of the Chinese government also confirms the fact that the renminbi will not appreciate sharply once. In an economic debate after the opening of the joint meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank on the 8th, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, said that China will not let the renminbi rise quickly. Zhou Xiaochuan also said that China will carefully evaluate fiscal and monetary policies in the coming months to determine the future direction of the Chinese economy.

Internally, it is necessary to further promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism. Chen Xuebin, executive director of the China Financial Institution and executive dean of Fudan University’s Institute of Finance, suggested that the floating range of the renminbi against a basket of currencies should be appropriately relaxed. On the one hand, it can give monetary policy a certain degree of independence, and on the other hand it can help cope with power. Temporary capital flows are particularly important for China's current economic operation. In addition to relaxing the fluctuation range of the renminbi exchange rate, Tan Yaling, director of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment Research, pointed out that China's exchange rate model lacks weight and combination. She said frankly: “At the transaction level, we still have the largest share of the U.S. dollar. At present, the weight of a basket of currencies is still dominated by U.S. dollars. The distribution of monetary weights is not yet mature, but it must be pushed, so that domestic companies can have indicators that can be used to control them. Losses and profits."